Don't
Worry; Be Happy
By
Stephen J. Butler |
Archives |
A nation of
investors, psychologically bludgeoned by the numbers on their
September 30th account statements, would do well to recall the
song by Bobby McFerrin entitled, "Don't Worry; Be Happy."
Apart from being a popular song in 1988, as well as an unofficial
theme song for the original George Bush campaign, the song offers
a useful message at times like these.
"In every
life we have some trouble But when you worry you make it double."
To the extent
we are bothered by our investment results, it may be helpful to
take a few chapters from the book of neuroscience. This is the
relatively new study of the brain which holds that we do not begin
as a blank sheet of paper waiting to be impacted by environment.
We are, instead, like a film where the picture has already been
taken, and we are waiting to be developed. Even our sense of morality
is dictated by generations of genetic imprinting. The brain itself,
a chemical analogue computer, can be mapped and our pre-programmed
"software" can be determined. In recent years, conventions
of neuroscientists have attracted over 20,000 participants which
puts them in the ranks of the largest professional gatherings.
By now. you're probably asking, "Where have I been? What
am I pre-programmed to do from here on out?"
Studies based
on neuroscience indicate that individuals experience a given level
of happiness regardless of what is going on in their personal
or financial lives. Of course, any one person experiences periodic
bouts of pleasure or sadness but they return to equilibrium at
some level that is pre-programmed. And different people wind up
at different natural levels of equilibrium. How does this all
relate to the disappointment triggered by the market crash?
If you are really
upset, it could be that you were pre-programmed to be generally
unhappy anyway. If you are taking it in stride and don't feel
too bothered or consumed by your 30% loss, you may be someone
who is conditioned to always be walking "on the sunny side
of the street." The danger lies at the two opposing ends
of the spectrum. Someone who is too happy and optimistic may make
bad financial decisions that fail to provide enough cushion against
the down side. Someone who is perpetually unhappy for reasons
they have not fully explored may allow the recent market declines
to plunge them into a catatonic state.
In either case,
the best course of action is to wait. The advice generally given
to a surviving spouse after the death of a husband or wife is
to not make any big decisions for awhile. Don't sell the house
right away, etc. The plunge of the stock market and the attack
on the World Trade Center should prompt us to consider the same
advice. A long article in the New York Times last Sunday interviewed
a blue ribbon slate of leading financial figures, and there was
no consensus among them as to when the economy or the stock market
would turn around.
The best antidote
to the threat of making rash decisions and costly mistakes may
be to use this opportunity to forget about money and investing
for awhile. A dinner partner at a wedding over the weekend said
that she had found herself eating and drinking more in the weeks
since the attack. (Let's get a grip.) She also said that she found
herself reassessing and focusing on what was really important
in her life. There's a message here for all of us.
It is important
to keep saving and investing. It is also important to consider
how we are spending our time and money. Do we really need that
next purchase, whatever it might be? Would the money be better
spent paying off some credit card or mortgage debt?
And what about
our health? Yoga was invented about 4,000 years ago to help Hindus
extend the last third of their lives, which they devoted to spiritual
awakening. Still in print today, after thirty years and millions
of copies sold, is a book by Jesse Stern called "Yoga, Youth
and Reincarnation." This is an excellent time to read this
inspirational book that may help preserve our health and help
us last long enough to far outlive this economic downturn.
Frustrated by
a lack of understanding about these people in the Middle East
that are causing us all this anguish? One of the best books on
the subject is "From Beirut to Jerusalem" by Thomas
Friedman. It reads like a novel, but it's a true story of his
life over the years as a New York Times correspondent in the Middle
East. Most important, it aids in understanding how people of the
Arab world think. A retired Bechtel engineer told me years ago
that "west of the Bosporus it's a different world."
We are certainly finding that out now. Anytime we can gain understanding,
however, it helps to reduce our fear and anxiety. This book is
a tonic in that respect.
All in all,
there isn't much we can do about events unfolding in the political
and financial world. By any measure, they represent a disaster.
When 70% of our success as investors is a function of what the
market as a whole is doing, we are definitely paddling upstream
if we expect to be putting up investment gains in the face of
this downturn. Our best bet is to avoid doing anything rash and
to use these events as a catalyst for change. This may be the
time to fold our tents as self-styled investment experts and focus
on improving other aspects of our lives, like our health and our
relationships.
"cause
when you worry your face will frown and that will bring everybody
down Don't Worry - Be Happy..."
|