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The
13 Steps to Investing Foolishly
Step 12: Advanced Investing
Issues
Derivatives,
shorting against the box, ascending trend channels, 50-day
moving averages, Bollinger bands... ohmigosh! Yes, there are
a heck of a lot of high-level, complicated topics in investing.
Fortunately for you, they are basically nonsense.
You can
let out a big sigh of relief, because in this step we won't
be covering or going into excruciating detail about many of
these "advanced" topics. Instead, we'll highlight
a few market complexities, some that are worth running away
from (day trading), others that provide a useful chuckle (technical
analysis), and a couple that you might consider learning more
about and perhaps employing (margin and shorting).
Day
Trading
We think
the best way to accumulate wealth is to buy stock in great
businesses and hold on for decades. But this is easier said
than done. When the stock market is surging or plunging, or
when you learn of one exciting company after another, it can
be hard to refrain from actively buying or selling.
The buy-and-hold
message is further challenged by the likes of "day traders,"
who believe they can wring extra profit by following the stock
market by the hour. You've probably seen segments on day traders
on your nightly news. It's become a fad, as more and more
people forego regular 9-to-5 jobs and instead spend that time
with their eyes glued to computer monitors (and we all know
how painful that can be), buying thousands of dollars of stock
at a time, holding it for a few hours (or minutes!), and then
selling. Sheesh.
People
"investing" like this aren't really investing. They're
gambling. They're not holding on to pieces of strong companies,
accumulating wealth as the companies grow. They're making
bets that they can out-think others. They aren't participating
in the growth of the American economy -- they're betting that
they're better guessers than the next guy. They aren't.
Technical
Analysis
Technical
analysis dwells on charts of stock price movements and trading
volume. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, focuses on
the value of companies, studying such things as a firm's business,
earnings, and competition. While investors from the fundamental
school (Fools!) want to understand a business from the inside
out, technicians mostly remain on the outside, observing how
the stock behaves in the market.
Investors
who use technical analysis focus on the psychology of the
market, scrutinizing investor behavior. They try to determine
where the big institutional money is going so they can put
their cash in the same places. It's amazing to us to think
that anyone might study a stock chart, see a particular pattern,
determine that the stock is "breaking resistance,"
and then commit actual money to that proposition. Simply put,
leave technical analysis alone.
Margin
Buying
on margin means you're borrowing money from your brokerage
firm and using it to buy stocks. It's attractive because you
can turn a profit using money that you don't even have. For
that privilege, you're paying interest to the brokerage, just
as with any other loan. (Actually, it's a lot easier to open
a margin account than to apply for a bank loan.) If the market
turns against you, you either sell for a loss -- plus interest
costs -- or hold on until the market picks up, paying interest
all the while.
Investing
with margin isn't an automatic no-no, in our opinion. It should
just be used with extreme moderation and caution. Some people,
however, will max out on margin, borrowing 50% of the value
of their portfolio. We think that's far too risky, and something
any investor should avoid.
If you
already have been investing for a few years and decide to
use margin, we suggest you limit yourself to borrowing no
more than 20% of your portfolio's value. If you do so and
you have $20,000 in your portfolio, you'll be borrowing $4,000
and putting $24,000 to work for you. That's called leverage.
A little of it can be a useful and not-too-risky thing.
Think
very carefully before you use margin, though. If you're borrowing
on margin and paying 9% interest, you should be pretty sure
your stocks will appreciate more than 9%. If your margined
securities fall below a certain level, you'll receive a "margin
call," requiring an infusion of additional cash.
Only experienced
investors should use margin. Indeed, many experienced investors
steer clear of it. As of this writing, none of our real-money
online portfolios have used margin, and they're all doing
just fine.
However,
there is one reason why, even if you're not interested in
buying stocks on borrowed money, you still might want to open
a margin account...
Shorting
If you've
ever swaggered up to a craps table, cleared away the necessary
elbow room, and slapped down a few candy-colored chips on
the Pass Line, you were doing what most of the people at a
craps table do. You were betting with the crowd.
Adjacent
to the Pass Line, however, is a cheaper strip of real estate
(usually a vacant lot) known as the "Don't Pass."
It's virtually the opposite bet; you win when the Pass Line
crowd loses, and lose when it wins. Because you're betting
against the roller and most of the rest of the table, betting
Don't Pass is considered bad form. The craps jargon for you
is "wrong bettor." Many other bettors will actually
dislike you for doing it, a feeling that will be reinforced
whenever you smile at dice rolls that make them frown. If
you read our discussion boards for very long, you'll notice
that short-sellers aren't generally the most beloved of contributors
to this forum.
When you
short a stock, you are banking on that stock's price going
down. You initiate the process of shorting a stock by first
borrowing shares from a current shareholder. This may sound
difficult, but it isn't. Your discount broker does this for
you automatically. You then sell these borrowed shares at
the current market price. Then you sit and wait, rooting for
the stock to spiral downward. While you wait, you have to
pay dividends to the person who actually owns the stock you
borrowed (if the stock pays a dividend) and, in some cases,
you can also be subject to paying margin interest to the brokerage,
just as if you had borrowed money.
When you're
ready to cash out of your investment, whether for profit or
for loss, you close out the position by buying the stock back
at the market price so you can return your borrowed shares
to the lender -- another thing your broker does for you automatically.
That's it.
Shorting
can offer a couple of potential benefits for your portfolio.
First, shorting stock is a "hedge" -- you're taking
compensatory measures to counterbalance a potentially plummeting
stock market. Outside of its status as a hedge, however, selling
stocks short is also a great way to make money. Indeed, if
you make the right choices, you can make money both ways --
as the stocks you own rise AND as the stocks you have shorted
wither. It's tremendous fun! In fact, before we turned Foolish
enough to short stocks, we didn't know just how much fun we
were missing.
Second,
and more important, the shorting of stocks is vastly underpracticed
by the investment community at large. From a purely Foolish
point of view, this makes shorting stock even more compelling.
That's because Fools relish a good swim against the tide.
When most investors are trying to figure out how many more
half-point gains they can squeeze out of their equities, we're
looking the other way. We're regarding these same securities
from the top down, assessing how far each might fall. The
seldom-taken contrary view can be lucrative.
A final
note: Once in a blue moon, your broker may be forced to return
your shorted shares to the anonymous lender, usually because
he wants to sell them. Forced into doing so, you'll have to
buy back the shares prematurely -- whether you've made money
or not. This happens only with very small companies that have
few shares outstanding, and is usually just a minor nuisance.
Put the money somewhere else.
When calculating
returns, keep in mind that all the normal steps of buying
and selling a stock are still present, just reversed. Both
transactions still have a cost basis and a sales price. But,
for stocks sold short, the chronological order has been reversed.
Shorting
stock is one approach that separates the sophisticated investor
from the novice. Believing that selling shares short is difficult
and highly dangerous, some people pay oodles of money to enter
"hedge funds," mutual fund partnerships whose managers
short stock and go on margin. Having read this far, you already
know most of what these "pros" know, and can do
it yourself.
Finally,
remember that when your "Pass Line" friends find
out you're shorting stocks, they may start to regard you as
Darth Vader. So, wear dark clothes, a low visor, breathe loud,
and milk it.
For more
on the pros and cons of shorting, check out our Shorting Stocks
discussion board and read our Dueling Fools debate on the
strategy.
You're
almost home-free, Fool. Now, on to the last step to investing
Foolishly.
Next
Step: Get Fully Foolish »

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