Week in Review 
For the week 10/29/2007 - 11/2/2007
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

On Tuesday, after touring inspiring Independence Hall in Philadelphia, I was walking through a nearby park when I came across a statue of Robert Morris, 1734-1806. Morris was a signer of both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, and was instrumental in raising funds to finance the war. In time he became one of the wealthiest men in America, but then I read on his marker:

"Morris speculated heavily in land. Overextended, he fell into bankruptcy and spent three years in debtors' prison."

You see, friends, it really is all about real estate, as we learned once again this week.

The latest examples of the global property bubble, for instance, are in Singapore, which announced it was curbing speculation with home prices up 23% just this year, while with regards to Britain, Bloomberg News ran the headline, "U.K. Housing Market Teeters on Edge of Northern Rock." As reported by Simon Clark:

"Britain's expansion has been spurred by a borrowing spree, thanks to interest rates at 40-year lows from 2001 to 2006. By the end of 2006, the British owed 1.37 trillion pounds, or 1.61 times their income - the highest rate in the Group of Seven nations, according to the London-based National Institute of Economic and Social Research. By June 30, the ratio had grown to 1.66. The U.S. rate remained at 1.42 during that period.

"Britons poured the borrowed money into housing - and then used their new homes as collateral to take on even more debt. Residential property prices soared 189 percent in the past 10 years, almost twice the increase for single-family homes in the U.S., according to HBOS Plc, the U.K.'s biggest mortgage lender, and U.S. government figures.

"Consumers have spent some of these gains and loans on goods such as new kitchens and cars they otherwise couldn't afford, said Alan Clarke, a London-based economist for BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank.

" 'The only thing that has been supporting consumer spending growth is wealth gains from house price inflation,' Clarke says.

'This is about to disappear.'"

Where some of us were wrong was in the timing, I'll be the first to admit. But the global real estate bubble is beginning to unravel with a vengeance and of course the first big repercussions are being felt here in the United States. It sure was fun while it lasted, though. As a mortgage salesman told Scott Reckard of the Los Angeles Times in a story on some of the dicey option ARMs, "Newport Beach, where everyone is driving a Mercedes and the homes start at $1 million, is like an old western movie set," he said, describing the finances of many wealthy homeowners as precarious. "It's all just a front, with stilts holding it up."

The picture isn't getting any better as the latest S&P/Case Shiller index revealed home prices fell an 8th straight month in October, while economist Robert Shiller maintained there are "no signs of a turnaround." Shiller earlier commented that "psychology is possibly changing worldwide" with regards to real estate, as in he's now coming around to my global theory. And in case you didn't hear, foreclosures across America doubled in the past year.

As for the banking industry, including those who like to call themselves 'investment' banks, it continued to slowly reveal that its books are toxic. This week UBS wrote down $4.4 billion in mortgage-related paper, and, in a bit of honesty missing from most reports these days in the sector, said not only is there more pain to come but UBS basically can't value the garbage it has; as opposed to some of their brethren who fake it.

But I suppose you want to hear about the Federal Reserve, even as it remains largely irrelevant at this stage. I said it in August and I maintain today that while in the short-term its actions can make a difference, longer-term it's too late.

This week your central bank lowered the key funds rate 25 basis points to 4.50% but the Fed scared the market by acting as if this is it?no more cuts. In its accompanying statement the Fed said "the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction," while "upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth." So forget that 3.9% rate of growth for the U.S. economy in the third quarter, we'll see nothing like that going forward, though that doesn't mean we are in turn lowering rates further because inflation remains an issue.

Inflation indeed is a growing issue; such as in the EU-zone where it is now at 2.6% and within striking distance of the European Central Bank's 3% limit. In other words, the ECB, long a better inflation fighter than its U.S. counterpart, could be hiking interest rates at a time when our Federal Reserve is still lowering them. Can you spell further trouble for the U.S. dollar?

But wait?fret not?for I bring you tidings of great joy. For unto us this past week strode Treasury Secretary and Street Shill Hank Paulson, yet again, who proclaimed from his lofty perch, "I am strongly committed to a strong dollar." From the early reviews of Jerry Seinfeld's "Bee Movie" that I read; Paulson's joke garnered more laughs than anything in Jerry's film effort.

Staying on the inflation topic, the price of crude finished the week at yet another high, $95.93, but remember what I'm focused on?gasoline futures, which now sit at $2.43, or well above my personal Maginot Line of $2.30. While I recognize $3.00 at the pump has been an issue throughout this year in many states, here in New Jersey we've been residing around the far more benign $2.65 level. Not anymore. So fill 'er up immediately because gasoline is about to rise 35 cents in a nanosecond.

But why does oil continue to soar and confound the skeptics? Yes, you have the terror premium, but the inventory picture amidst still sky high demand is not good, while on the exploration front, as Schlumberger's chief said, 70% of all the oil fields being tapped today are more than 30 years old. You don't have to be a Boone Pickens to take it from there.

Street Bytes

--Volatility reigned supreme again as stocks soared at first on the interest rate cut on Wednesday, then swooned on renewed concerns over mortgage-related losses and a research report on Citigroup questioning whether it would be able to maintain its dividend. [CEO Chuck Prince has reportedly resigned.] Even news that GDP came in at 3.9% for the third quarter, as well as a solid reading on October employment, with 166,000 non-farm jobs being created, couldn't help as the Dow Jones fell 1.5% and the S&P 500 lost 1.7%, though Nasdaq bucked the trend to add 0.2%.

The GDP report is ancient history, anyway. The economy is slowing and the impact from housing is only now being felt, albeit slightly, as the consumer begins to understand their #1 asset is dead in the water. Two leading indicators of manufacturing, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and the national ISM, came in worse than expected and added to the belief we are entering a rough patch.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 3.80% 2-yr. 3.67% 10-yr. 4.32% 30-yr. 4.62%

Bonds rallied anew despite the strong GDP number, the solid employment report, and a Fed that hinted it was done on the rate front. Normally, given this threesome, bonds would have tanked but the credit crisis and the unknown trump everything else these days.

--Due to my large holding in a China-based biodiesel company, I have been following the shortage of diesel gasoline on the mainland closely as to its potential impact on my own investment, which has held onto recent gains.

The issue is government price controls and the spread between soaring oil and a far lower retail price, as mandated by Beijing. Of course if you are a refiner, such as Sinopec or PetroChina, you lose money under that arrangement and so the refiners slashed production, or shuttered it outright, leading to gas stations running dry. Pump prices haven't been raised in 17 months, until the other day, that is, when the government relented and allowed them to rise 10%.

Well, this goes to the issue of government-subsidized prices of key staples, worldwide, and consumers, not just in China, but India, Malaysia, and other nations are starting to feel the pain. Low-income citizens, where a market-based gallon or liter of petrol could equal their daily wage in some cases, will revolt, as they always have throughout history when governments are forced to throw in the towel on a subsidy. The UN this week also warned of the coming crisis, particularly when it comes to food inflation.

Of course, perversely, when it comes to oil the current pricing environment can help in hastening the day of viable alternative energy sources. As for my biodiesel play, I'll learn the impact of the mini-crisis in China when it reports earnings next week.

--Staying on the energy topic, I noted on 10/13/07 in this space that Big Oil's earnings have peaked for a variety of reasons, despite the soaring price of crude, and this has indeed been the case. Exxon Mobil's came in 10% lower in the third quarter, though some would argue $9.4 billion is still pretty good. Importantly, however, Exxon's production was off 2%. Chevron, in its earnings report, spoke of facing a similar shortfall. Peak oil?get used to it.

--New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, no dummy, it's safe to say, ordered all city agencies to institute a hiring freeze, while cutting their budgets; this in light of the fact New York is about to suffer a double whammy?lower tax revenues related to a softer housing market as well as from potentially much lower receipts from Wall Street.

--Chrysler's car sales fell 12.4% in Oct., while Ford's fell 13%, its 12th consecutive monthly decline. GM's overall sales slid 0.4% while Toyota's rose 0.5%. Meanwhile, Chrysler announced it was eliminating 11,000 jobs, including 1,000 white collar positions; this on top of 13,000 previously announced in February. The automaker is also ditching four slow-selling models.

--New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo accused Washington Mutual (indirectly, not named, due to restrictions on a state's ability to bring cases against federally chartered banks) of pressuring an appraisal company to inflate home values. Higher values allow a lender to make bigger loans and earn greater returns when pooling the securities. Emails show that Washington Mutual pressured the appraiser in question, eAppraseIT, as the latter's president said "we have agreed to roll over and just do it." [New York Times]

--Bond insurers such as MBIA and Ambac continue to see their shares slammed amid concerns over the subprime instruments they are insuring. Moody's Investor Services as recently as Oct. 23 rated 97% of Ambac's $71.5 billion CDO portfolio AA or better, but since then there have been a plethora of downgrades of the mortgage pools.

--Cisco Systems announced a $16 billion expansion in China, including investments in manufacturing and education. Part of the plan is an agreement with Alibaba Group, China's biggest online commerce company, to aid in future business services for small- and medium-sized operations. CEO John Chambers said Cisco and China's Education Ministry will open 300 centers to train students in networking technologies, with Cisco donating equipment. "Our commitment is to try to train 100,000 students over the next three years," Chambers added. American job seekers may want to head to China now and marry a mainland woman.

--It will take a long time for Merrill Lynch to regain its credibility after the Stan O'Neal debacle and the $8.4 billion writedown (with more to come). On a personal note, in my days in the fund industry I dealt extensively with Merrill and found it to be the most professional of the big firms. First class all the way, and their sales force delivered for us. [While on the investment side, at least where I was concerned, no one got hurt!]

But as for the departing O'Neal, he takes with him parting gifts of $161 million, owing in no small part to Merrill allowing him to 'retire' rather than fire him, which means he got to keep his retirement funds and stock. [Otherwise, he could have lost stock that had not vested, for starters.] Merrill says, hey, at least he didn't receive a bonus or severance pay. Of course the payoff is still egregious, but, sadly, this is the system as the rest of us schleps have learned all too well.

--Inflation watch, part deux: Aussie wheat production continues to plummet due to the drought there; Australia's output being critical to the global food picture. Kangaroos are rioting.

--Shares in Google crossed the $700 level, just weeks after hitting $600 (10/8), as investors now focus on its efforts to become the platform for accessing the Internet on cellphones by introducing a system that is compatible with wireless carriers such as Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile, while at the same time looking to bid on licenses for new airwaves to build out its own network. Google then would offer a proprietary phone, for free, paid for by ads.

But as one analyst told the Washington Post, when Google gets into wireless in a serious way, expectations will change. "Do you ever go to Google for technical support?"

Separately, Google is teaming with social-networking site MySpace to take on rival Facebook, which just sold a stake to Microsoft.

--Alcatel-Lucent, in announcing yet another miserable quarter, is tossing 4,000 more on the street, on top of 12,500 eliminated in February, blaming housing in part for fewer fixed lines as revenues plummeted 11%. Incredibly, though, the CFO was fired but CEO Patricia Russo remains. And it's not like I've seen her rake the leaves at headquarters to at least begin to earn her staggering salary.

--Warm weather hurt gunmaker Smith & Wesson's sales as the company warned on future earnings. Hunters went to the beach rather than pick off pheasants and grizzly bears. Dick Cheney was hunting locally this week and didn't pick off any humans, as best as we can ascertain, though this could be easily covered up. "Your husband was hunting with the Vice President, Mrs. Crabapple, when he fell into some quicksand. We're sorry for your loss."

Foreign Affairs

Iraq: The U.S. death toll was 39 in October, the 2nd-lowest in two years and down from 84 in August. Civilian deaths are also way down as the surge takes hold and some insurgents have tired of the fight. Of course the Iraqi government remains a total disaster, as is the reconstruction effort, and perhaps most telling was the comment by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that the "most dangerous dam in the world" is one near Mosul, that, should it collapse, could kill, get this, up to 500,000. The Army Corps is arguing with its Iraqi counterparts as to the severity of the situation, with the Iraqis saying, 'no problemo.'

But the big news in country remains the situation between the Kurdish rebel group, the PKK, and Turkey, with the U.S. and Iraqi government, finally, at least acting like it will do its best to reinforce the border (and thus slow the supply lines to the PKK, let alone the ability to launch attacks inside Turkey). But this comes after Kurdish President Barzani said any move by Turks into Kurdish territory would be a declaration of war. Then he had the gall to call on the Turks to "take a peaceful approach."

However, it all boils down to Monday and a meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and President Bush in Washington, where I'm sure the president will promise everything, but deliver little.

Iran: We're to learn over the next two weeks just how serious the West is on confronting Tehran and its uranium enrichment / nuclear weapons program. The U.S. has vowed that within this period it will go ahead with tougher sanctions, along with France, Britain and Germany, even if Russia and China balk, while by mid-November, the International Atomic Energy Agency is to issue a key report on the state of Iran's program, though we already know one conclusion will be that Iran is at least three years away from having the bomb.

Gerard Baker of the London Times, writing in its sister paper the New York Post, said it has gone largely unnoticed that in the latest request for spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was an additional $88 million "to modify B2 stealth bombers so that they can carry a 30,000-pound bomb called the massive ordnance penetrator, or MOP. The MOP is an advanced form of a 'bunker buster,'" and is obviously intended for destroying portions of Iran's nuclear program.

Baker concludes:

"Of all the silly arguments that pass as conventional wisdom in (the debate over the threat posed by the mullahs) is the claim that the U.S. would be crazy to start a war with Iran. It's a silly argument because America is already at war with Iran. Every day U.S. soldiers in Iraq are attacked by Iranian-financed paramilitaries, with Iranian-produced weapons in pursuit of Iranian political objectives. Iran is manipulating the Iraqi Government in ways that undercut the steady progress the U.S. is making in Iraq. The only real question about the next phase in this war is whether an escalation by the U.S., in a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, would further American - and Western - objectives, or impede them. The evidence is increasingly suggesting that the costs of not acting are equal to or larger than the costs of acting.

"Military action is not inevitable; yesterday the U.S. again emphasized the diplomatic option with a strengthening of economic sanctions. And it's still possible that someone will prevail on the Iranians to ditch their menacing and destructive aims. But it is starting to look as though, with not much more than a year left in his term, President Bush has decided, as he surveys the unedifying global territory of ideological and state- backed terror, that he needs to clean house. And a 30,000-pound MOP might just do the job."

But on the home front, Iranian President Ahmadinejad is facing growing criticism on the performance of the economy, with the official inflation rate at 15.8%, and the unofficial one closer to 22%. Many leaders are complaining Iran is spending its oil revenues as soon as they come in. But, separately, one way Iran is avoiding the full impact of economic sanctions is to shift its trade focus from the likes of Germany to the Far East, where China has now become Iran's #1 trading partner, surpassing the Germans.

In light of the above criticism, though, what have I been saying for years now? End-run Ahmadinejad. The Washington Post's David Ignatius, in his column of Oct. 28, notes:

"Behind the scenes in Tehran, another drama is playing out, as rivals jockey for control of the Islamic Republic. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes the most noise, so people wrongly tend to assume he's in control. In fact, he faces growing resistance, starting with former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Sources tell me that Rafsanjani's allies have been advising officials in Europe and the Middle East that Ahmadinejad is weak and vulnerable. The hard-liners have counterattacked by installing a new head of the Revolutionary Guard Corps who has written on revitalizing the Islamic revolution worldwide. In another dangerous move, the Guard's militant al-Quds Force was recently given responsibility for defending much of Iran's coastline."

Ignatius' conclusion is that "with each step it takes closer to conflict, (the Bush administration) is walking toward a well- planned trap."

Lebanon: Since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in Feb. 2005, I have screamed the U.S. abandoned Lebanon at the worst possible time and history has proven this to be so. It's also been about arming the Lebanese Army, to a large extent. The Oct. 29 issue of Defense News has an editorial opining on same.

"The key to thwarting Iran's regional ambitions lies in helping those nations that are trying to reject Tehran's sway - and if necessary, tearing down bureaucratic roadblocks that slow the flow of aid.

"In Iraq, it means stopping the flow of fighters, expertise and funds that support insurgent violence and fuel sectarian strife.

"In Gaza, it means reducing the influence of Tehran's proxy Hamas.

"In Lebanon, it means giving the Lebanese Armed Forces the arms they need to establish the government's monopoly on armed force, and bring Hizbullah and other armed groups to heel.

"Earlier this year, the woefully ill-equipped Lebanese Army surrounded a refugee camp infiltrated by more than 500 members of a Syrian- and Iranian-backed al-Qaeda-affiliated group. The siege lasted for more than 100 days, punctuated by brutal fighting that displaced thousands of civilians and cost Lebanese troops their lives. Beirut asked its allies for help: weapons and vehicles and spare parts. The primary target of the requests was the United States, which decades ago had supplied the largest part of the country's arsenal.

"America answered the call, but several factors slowed and diluted the response. Some of the equipment was so old that it was no longer in U.S. stocks. Other requests were for advanced arms - cluster bombs, for example - that would have introduced qualitatively new capabilities into a region, which is against U.S. policy.

"But the biggest problem was bureaucratic. Six years into the global war on terrorism, the U.S. government can't move quickly enough to redirect money to cover emerging needs."

As it turned out, the turning point in the refugee camp battle was a personal visit from the chief of the U.S. Central Command, Adm. William Fallon, who within hours had paved the way for 100 missiles from American stocks in Iraq. The Lebanese Army's eventual victory was decisive and an important watershed event. But far more needs to be done to continue to strengthen the military, and it's probably too late as Hizbullah continues to regain ground it lost during the 2006 war with Israel. The Israelis claim Hizbullah has tripled one class of destructive missiles since then; this while Parliament leader Saad Hariri, son of Rafik, claims to have evidence Syria has plans to assassinate both himself and Prime Minister Siniora.

It didn't have to be this way, but now we live with a failed White House policy.

Israel: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas claimed Hamas is looking to overthrow his PA government in the West Bank. "We have information that Hamas is planning to copy the Gaza coup," he said, adding Iran and Syria are supporting these efforts of course.

As to Israel's raid on the suspected Syrian nuclear reactor, as the Wall Street Journal reported the episode is exposing rifts between hardliners in Washington and the Israeli government, with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert making overtures to Damascus in the aftermath; in sharp contrast to Israel's position on Iran and its declared nuclear program.

Jay Solomon / Wall Street Journal

"Israel's emerging strategy for handling Syria, say U.S. and Israeli officials, is to identify clear red lines for Damascus not to cross militarily, but to also keep the window open for negotiations. On the nuclear issue, those officials say, Israel is hoping the attack will serve as a deterrent, not a provocation?.

"[For its part] the Bush administration is offering few signs it would be willing to support Israeli efforts to engage Mr. Assad. Indeed, the Bush administration has moved to ratchet up financial sanctions and travel bans on Syrian officials for alleged attempts to overthrow the Lebanese government of Prime Minister Siniora."

Newsweek, incidentally, reports that photographic evidence reveals the suspected Syrian reactor was actually in existence in 2003, at least the main building was up, and if true it represents another significant intelligence failure by American and other Western spy agencies.

North Korea: Pyongyang has promised to start disabling the nuclear weapons program at Yongbyon shortly, but it's the degree which is important, as in how quickly would the North be able to restart Yongbyon, if at all? It was in December 2002, after all, that North Korea restarted Yongbyon after an eight-year hiatus. And what of Kim Jong-il's other nuclear operations?

Russia: December 2 is the referendum on President Vladimir Putin's rule, in effect, as he looks for a foothold after he leaves office next spring following the presidential vote. For now, as Putin heads up United Russia going into the parliamentary vote, the party's popularity has risen from 55% to 68% since the announcement he would lead the ticket. Personally, I'm kind of excited by my upcoming trip here as the campaign will be in full force by then. I should be able to give you some unique insight, especially in as much as the Kremlin told the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that no more than 70 observers would be allowed to monitor the vote, compared with 450 in 2003. In other words, ballot stuffing for United Russia is even more of a certainty and could ensure a parliamentary majority large enough to change the constitution, thus allowing Putin to remain in office.

And along the lines of Putin's move against the OSCE, he told European leaders, many of whom have criticized Russia on human rights and democracy issues, that he was planning to set up his own think tank for freedom and democracy in Brussels or another European capital in an effort to counter Western nongovernmental organizations' activities in Russia. The Kremlin in the past has accused the NGOs of complicity in both Georgia's Rose and Ukraine's Orange revolutions, as well as interfering in Moscow's domestic affairs. Russia does have a point, somewhat, in the way ethnic Russians are discriminated against in parts of the former Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, Russia will be filing a claim with the United Nations by year end to the mineral wealth below the Arctic Seabed, calling it an extension of the Siberian continental shelf.

Japan: In a big blow, symbolically, to the White House, Japan is pulling its minimal support for the War on Terror by bringing its ships home that were fueling coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan. The opposition demanded it and won. Tokyo's latest government is a mess.

Taiwan: President Chen Shui-bian assured lone supporter Washington that he would consult the U.S. before attacking the mainland. Really.

Britain: A state visit by Saudi King Abdullah stirred up a hornet's nest after Abdullah claimed British intelligence didn't act on tips from his country that could have stopped the 2005 London bombings. Human rights groups were furious that Abdullah came to Britain in the first place and was feted so in light of Saudi Arabia's record in treating its own citizens.

Spain: In the Madrid bombings trial, prosecutors failed to convince the three-judge panel of an al-Qaeda link for the mastermind and some defendants walked away. But, remember, seven leading suspects blew themselves up three weeks after the event.

Italy: The anti-immigrant backlash sweeping much of Europe the past few years received an unfortunate boost with a brutal, high- profile murder in a Rome suburb where the wife of a naval captain died after being raped, beaten and thrown into a drainage ditch, with a 24-year-old Romanian immigrant the suspect. Romanians are being blamed for a crime wave in Rome's major cities since January, when Romania joined the European Union. Italy's parliament is now debating a measure that would allow police chiefs to expel EU citizens who posed a threat to public security, as well as immigrants outside the EU.

Argentina: Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is the nation's new president, taking over for her husband?a nice trick. She becomes Argentina's first elected female president. [Evita Peron was never president, in case you were just musing.] Neighbor Chile also has a female president, Michelle Bachelet. In Argentina, though, many predict Cristina Kirchner will fall on her face in trying to deal with some huge problems, including still intractable poverty, a 9% unemployment rate, and rising inflation, including a severe energy shortage.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.

God bless America.

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Gold closed at $808...first cross over $800 since 1/80
Oil, $95.93

Returns for the week 10/29-11/2

Dow Jones -1.5% [13595]
S&P 500 -1.7% [1509]
S&P MidCap -1.0%
Russell 2000 -2.9%
Nasdaq +0.2% [2810]

Returns for the period 1/1/07-11/2/07

Dow Jones +9.1%
S&P 500 +6.4%
S&P MidCap +10.2%
Russell 2000 +1.3%
Nasdaq +16.4%

Bulls 53.8
Bears 23.1 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]

Have a great week. I appreciate your support.

Brian Trumbore

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