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Week in Review 
For the week 9/17/2007 - 9/21/2007
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

Wall Street...Give me 50!

The Federal Reserve met this week and in a surprise move lowered the key short-term funds rate 50 basis points, not the expected 25, to 4.75 percent after holding the line at 5.25 percent since June 2006. In its accompanying statement the Fed offered:

"Economic growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more generally. Today's action is intended to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time."

Wall Street took the rate cut bait and ran with it, back into its den, or up in some secure branch, and devoured it like a mongoose that's just strangled a cobra. But wanting more, frothing at the mouth, and finding no road kill, traders began to do the next best thing; bid up stocks for a second straight week.

It didn't matter that the U.S. dollar was hitting mega-year or all- time lows against other currencies, such as the euro and the Canadian dollar, the latter now at parity for the first time since the 1970s.

And it didn't matter that gold, normally a harbinger of all things bad when it takes flight, soared to its highest levels since January 1980, or that crude oil hit a high of its own, touching $84 before finishing the week near $82?still it's first weekly close at this level.

It didn't matter that the crisis in commercial paper, worldwide, is still a factor, even if a diminished one for the time being, or that the leveraged buyout premium that had helped propel stocks the first half of the year was officially kaput.

And it certainly didn't matter that everyone's number one asset, outside of those on the Forbes 400 list of billionaires, their home, is no longer rising 8% a year; more likely than not it's falling.

Yet Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee on Thursday that "Global financial losses have far exceeded even the most pessimistic estimates" for the mortgage sector.

Speak for yourself, Bennie Boy. Some of us were bang on, especially compared to your prior musings.

If nothing else this column is consistent. It's gets a little repetitive, for sure, and I'm early with many of my bigger themes, such as the Nasdaq Bubble, concerns over Russia's political situation, or real estate. But it's been about a key word regarding this last one, "affordability," around the world.

WIR 5/29/04

"Yes, since World War II, nationwide, housing values haven't declined in any single year, but tell that to California homeowners during the period 1989-1997, or Houston residents during the oil bust of the 1980s. No doubt, many parts of the country have more diversified economies than they once did, as in the above two cases, but the watchword is 'affordability' and in large swaths of America, folks are either stretching beyond their means or simply can't make the move.

"Housing was the prime source of the wealth effect that helped carry the economy through the post-2000 bubble period, as people saw their #1 asset appreciate at 8%+ a year and then borrowed against it. And heck, I know I'm a broken record on this topic and have zero credibility by now, but the big gains are in and now we wait to see if the next move is down or sideways. Either way, many won't feel as wealthy a few years hence, if not sooner, unless there is a spectacular rally on Wall Street, and consumer spending is bound to suffer."

WIR 4/2/05

"Remember, the bubble isn't just a U.S. story, it's global; whether we're talking Britain, Spain, Australia, or China."

WIR 5/27/06

"Ask anyone who's been to Europe in the past few years, chatting up a few blokes in a pub, and you'll find everyone is buying a second home in Spain, to cite but one prominent example; thanks in no small part to the prevalence of low-cost airlines that make it far easier to jet away for the weekend. But these same communities are going to slide like the rest."

WIR 5/12/07

"So pray the rest of the globe doesn't catch the cold we appear to be developing, though of course it will because it is suffering from the same chief symptom we have?a real estate bubble. Ours has popped. The rest are in the early stages of doing so; whether it's Britain, Ireland, out of control Moscow, Spain, or Australasia. And you can take that to the bank."

This week, for the first time that I can remember (at least it's not in any of his 'monthly outlooks' this year), PIMCO's Bill Gross specifically mentioned real estate bubbles in "Ireland, the UK, and Spain." And in my daily reading I saw these headlines in just the past few days.

From the Sydney Morning Herald:

"Housing affordability has worsened (in Australia) as the pace of house price growth has outstripped increases in disposable income, said the report by Fujitsu and JP Morgan?.

" 'It is really quite difficult now for many people to afford to buy property. There is huge demand, huge drive to own your own property,' said the consultant at Fujitsu."

The New Zealand Herald:

"A bank survey of residential real estate sector sentiment has presented a pessimistic picture, with many professionals saying the market has turned down fast?.

"A valuer [appraiser] said some prices were 'easing backwards' and valuation work was very slow?

"Property investors said the market had turned and the peak had been reached."

Call this the popping of the "Lord of the Rings" bubble, in actuality.

London Times

"House prices across much of Western Europe have stalled or begun to fall as spiraling borrowing costs and fears of over- supply take their toll on markets from Ireland to Spain, an industry survey has revealed.

"The German housing market has been hit hardest. A glut of property for sale in former East Germany dragged down price inflation countrywide, leaving the national average down 6.9 percent over the 12 months to the end of June."

Ben Bernanke may not really know what the heck is going on, but while the focus this week was to some extent on the dollar, gold and oil, when it comes to the Big Picture, globally, it's still about real estate by my way of thinking, linked with massive debt loads.

The thing is, as I've noted on countless occasions, the picture is unfolding at various rates of speed, as proved yet again in the above anecdotes. I said long ago there would be no recession in 2007, but I've been focusing on 2008 because I felt by then it would all come to a head when the decline in a chief asset's value finally begins to impact consumer spending?and thus earnings. Frankly, some of the other items we've been concerning ourselves with the past two months are noise.

None of this means stocks can't still rally. I've almost given up trying to predict the market. I also said the past few weeks the Federal Reserve was irrelevant, outside of a few days' response to a change in interest rate policy, and I stand by that. The Fed, as Bernanke and former chairman Alan Greenspan both said this week, can't be totally blamed for the housing bubble. But accomplices? Yes.

For now, I agree with Yale Professor Robert Shiller's statement to a Senate committee.

"The decline in house prices stands to create future dislocations, like the credit crisis we have just seen."

Street Bytes

--Wall Street's rally continued due in no small part to earnings reports from the likes of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In the instance of the first three results generally weren't as bad as feared, while Goldman Sachs simply blew the door off. Goldman added insult to injury, when it came to its competitors, because while the others were announcing writedowns in their mortgage and derivative holdings, Goldman announced it scored a profit of $900 million from 'shorting' mortgages.

But while no doubt the larger investment banks are far more diversified than they once were, particularly in terms of international revenue streams, some could still be considered ticking time bombs and you and I have no idea to what extent they really recognized fair market value with their derivatives holdings, many of which haven't traded in weeks so how the heck can you price them? And you still have the issue of off- balance sheet vehicles, which Greenspan correctly labeled a "disaster waiting to happen."

It would also appear the leveraged buyout game is dead, this being a major source of income for the Street in terms of advisory fees. Plus some are still holding gobs of LBO debt, waiting for deals to close, while others are reneging on transactions they cut with the private-equity side of the game. Such was the case late Friday when Goldman and KKR backed out of a deal for audio-products manufacturer Harman International, which saw its shares plunge from $110 to $82 on the news.

Back to the weak dollar, yes, it's splendiferous for U.S. multinationals as their exports are cheaper. But the flip side is we are now importing inflation in higher prices for foreign goods, let alone the fact European manufacturers, for one, are feeling major pain as their own exports plummet. A key Euro manufacturing index hit a two-year low this week. Personally, I'm about to get slaughtered in a trip overseas.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.07% 2-yr. 4.04% 10-yr. 4.62% 30-yr. 4.89%

There was some inflation news and if you choose to ignore all the stuff we'd generally consider important, like the price of wheat, milk, and beer, the 'core' figures that the government foists on us were once again tame. Both producer and consumer prices for August were up 0.2 percent. The core CPI, year-over- year, is running at a 2.1 percent clip; not of particular concern to the Fed. Bill Gross, incidentally, is calling for the Fed to eventually lower the funds rate to 3.75 percent as PIMCO sees growth in the U.S. economy slowing to a 1.25-1.75 percent rate over the next 12 months.

Back to housing, the Fed's move was designed in part to help homeowners whose adjustable rate mortgages are about to reset, which it will to a small extent, but the yield on the 10-year, from which traditional mortgages are pegged, soared from 4.46% to 4.62% after the Fed lowered short rates, thereby proving once again they have zero control over the long end of the yield curve. The 10-year rose because bond traders know that inflation could yet be a concern if the dollar were to continue to slide, which in turn portends higher rates for a myriad of reasons, not least of which may be the need to protect the value of the greenback.

--I continue to focus more on gasoline and natural gas futures than the price for a barrel of crude and until gasoline futures, which finished the week around $2.10 (tack on 70 cents or so for a pump price?with a little lag time), hits $2.30 plus, I'm not going to start screaming as to its impact on the consumer. That day is coming, however.

And I do have to reiterate something I said a number of months ago. I am NOT concerned about the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, even if 25 percent of the world's crude transits through there. No doubt, should there be an incident, such as with Iran, oil would immediately skyrocket to $100, but within days the U.S. and its allies would unclog it and protect the tankers.

--David Rocker, former hedge-fund manager, in an op-ed for Barron's.

"When highly leveraged strategies blow up, even the unleveraged public may suffer great losses. Big stock market declines breed fear, and lead to hasty investment decisions. Innocent companies may lose access to capital. Demands for bailouts by the Federal Reserve and other agencies proliferate. This crisis atmosphere breeds political pressure to force the Fed into unplanned and inappropriate policies. It seems unlikely that the Fed would be contemplating cutting rates now if there had been no market turbulence.

"As the Fed has come to the rescue again, the question of what is necessary to reduce the likelihood of future meltdowns remains. Better predictive power is not enough. Market collapses have occurred as a result of very-low-probability events hitting highly leveraged portfolios.

"While we have stepped back from the brink this time, we may be less fortunate in the future. The use of excessive leverage to enhance a manager's personal gain should no longer be tolerated. The societal risk is simply too great. Transparency must be increased and a real-time monitoring system must be put in place.

"A world of terrorism and broadening nuclear capacities is no place for highly-leveraged investments to exist on a grand scale. We no longer have the luxury of conducting an investigation to identify the parties responsible for a massive collapse. There is room to debate the regulations and legal powers required to reduce leverage, but it is imperative that the debate begin immediately."

--With the Fed's move, us savers (and those on fixed income) got screwed. Lower rates for our CDs and money market accounts. Thanks, Ben.

--For the record, August housing starts fell to their lowest level in 12 years, as did building permits (an indicator of future activity).

--What a mess the Bank of England found itself in following the run on the bank involving depositors of Northern Rock, a leading UK mortgage lender. As Carter Dougherty of the International Herald Tribune put it:

"After weeks in which (Bank of England governor Mervyn King) preached against rescuing investors who had made bad decisions, King told a parliamentary committee that the bank had to walk a fine line between financial stability and taking steps that could encourage reckless behavior in the future," i.e., the issue of 'moral hazard.'

King was the one who blasted both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for bailing out the banks during the current credit crisis, but as thousands rushed the doors of Northern Rock branches when it announced it had severe problems related to the subprime and commercial paper debacles, the first run on a British bank in 140 years, the Bank of England reversed course. The criticism was why it hadn't acted sooner, such as in moving Northern Rock assets into a better capitalized bank before the run started.

John McFall, chairman of the Commons Treasury Committee, told King:

"People were talking about Northern Rock. I think it is absurd that you should come here and say you didn't know anything about it. You were the guy in charge of financial stability?The answers you have given us this morning (say) that you weren't very much alert." [London Times]

Can it happen here? Of course it can. We had a mini-preview when rumors were swirling around Countrywide Bank about a month ago.

--Inflation in China is running at an 11-year high of 6.5 percent so the government has begun freezing items Beijing controls such as oil, electricity and water. The Communist party has a crucial meeting in October when it will choose the senior leadership for the next five years. There are fears the spike in food prices, in particular, will cause severe problems for the economy.

--Out of nowhere, Friday, Mattel apologized to China over the recall of Chinese-made toys, taking the blame for design flaws and saying it had recalled more products, including what had been said were lead-tainted toys, than justified. Mattel lawyers were on hand during the extraordinary meeting in Beijing with China's product safety chief. The Mattel executive vice president who issued the apology was then sent to a reeducation camp and will be allowed visitors once a year. Left unsaid was the move helped save Christmas, though shares in Island of Misfit Toys, which stood to profit from the mess, suddenly tanked on news of the Mattel apology.

--The European Court reaffirmed a 2004 antitrust decision of the European Commission against Microsoft, wherein the Commission had found that Microsoft abused its dominant position in the market for desktop operating systems, freezing out the competition in markets such as media player and server software. Microsoft said it will accept the final judgment, which carries with it a $690 million fine. Opponents say it will chill innovation and discourage competition, and could prove dicey for other dominant companies such as Google and Apple.

--Larry Ellison's Oracle issued a solid earnings report that aided in Wall Street's positive tone. He then spent a $billion on another yacht.

--The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday sales will rise just 4% this year, the smallest gain since 2002.

--There continue to be concerns over various illnesses in China, including pig disease (a major cause for the spike in food prices there) which is devastating farms throughout the country. The virus has also now been found in Vietnam and Burma and you never know which of the viruses could one day mutate. Of particular interest is Guangdong province (in the south next to Hong Kong), where earlier cases of bird flu were reported, including a new outbreak among ducks. A Hong Kong newspaper editorialized this week that "Alarm Bells Are Ringing" a day after the city suspended imports from Guangdong. [Maureen Fan / Washington Post]

--To qualify for Forbes' latest list of the 400 wealthiest people in the U.S. you now need $1.3 billion. Bill Gates remains #1 with a net worth of $59 billion and Warren Buffett is second at $52 billion. 270 of the 400 are entirely self-made. The other 130 are spoiled brats who are the last people you'd want to spend any time with at a party, not that they would give you the time of day.

--Two of our nation's bigger dirtballs were in the news this week. Securities lawyer William Lerach pleaded guilty to conspiracy involving his former firm, now known as Milberg Weiss. Lerach was king of the class-action lawsuit and earned for Milberg Weiss an estimated $216 million. But Milberg Weiss, and Lerach, paid $11 million in kickbacks to plaintiffs in more than 150 cases. Lerach admitted that typically the plaintiffs received secret payments of 10 percent of the attorneys' fees, which were not disclosed to the courts.

And then Melvyn Weiss himself was indicted for his role in the scheme. Milberg Weiss LLP was also charged with obstruction of justice. From 1983 to 2005, Mr. Weiss took in about $210 million as his share of the profits. Lerach agreed to give up $7.75 million, for starters, and faces a prison term. Weiss, if convicted, could face more than 40 years. He was known to carry around "thousands of dollars in cash from New York to Florida" to compensate plaintiffs for taking the lead in class actions, according to court documents.

--I got a kick out of the video of the jerk at the University of Florida who was tasered at a Sen. John Kerry appearance. I would have tasered him too, only earlier. But I see that Taser International received an order for 700 devices from the U.S. Forest Service to aid in the undeclared war between the animal kingdom and us. At least I'm assuming this is what the order was for.

--Zimbabwe's inflation rate "slowed to 6,592 percent in August from a year earlier, down from a record 7,634 percent in July, the government's Central Statistical Office said." [Reuters] We congratulate President Robert Mugabe for this wonderful achievement, even as ? of Zimbabweans have left the country, with about 5,000 more a day still streaming into South Africa, causing major problems there. [Don't pay any attention to the stories of a political settlement this week that would give more power to the opposition. At this point it just doesn't matter. The country is dead, finished. Change the name and start over.]

--My portfolio: I forgot to mention last time that I have been nibbling at the oil sector again, selling some of another holding to keep my allocation basically in line with the 80% cash / 20% equities recommendation I've touted. And with $80 oil my two solar plays have been doing well, though these are volatile suckers. As for my China biodiesel holding, it's stuck in a vat of vegetable oil.

--Finally, astronomers have concluded that Neptune has the strongest winds of any planet in the Solar system, up to 1,200 miles an hour or CAT 98 status. Oil companies would have trouble keeping their workers on deep-water platforms in these kinds of conditions, I imagine.

Foreign Affairs

Iraq: If you're looking for good news, USA Today had a story on Friday that the "alliance-building initiative is spreading." The fact that there have been some advances on the military end has certainly impeded Democratic efforts in Congress to change the strategy. So the surge continues.

But nothing of a positive nature has occurred politically and with the formal exit of Moqtada al-Sadr's faction from the ruling Shiite Alliance, the Maliki government only has the support of half of parliament.

Then there is the issue of the 20,000 to 50,000 private security guards in Iraq. The fact no one can pin down an exact number speaks volumes to yours truly. These mini-militias are best exemplified by Blackwater. Retired Lieut.-Colonel Ralph Peters commented from his perch at the New York Post.

"Picture foreign diplomats racing through Midtown [Manhattan] - in armored SUVs, with automatic weapons bristling from the windows. It's up to you to get out of their way.

"Then a car backfires in Times Square - sounds like a shot. At the corner of 42nd and Broadway, the diplomats' security guards open fire in all directions. Civilians fall dead and wounded by the dozen. The diplomats drive on.

"How would we like it?

"That's the situation in Baghdad, where the lawless actions of mercenaries on steroids undercut the progress made at such great cost by our troops.

"Last weekend, a convoy ferrying nervous-Nellie diplomats (do we have any other kind?) panicked. The guards, employed by Blackwater, shot the hell out of civilians going about their business in downtown Baghdad.

"Nine dead, two dozen wounded. Given what we know now, it looks like a war crime.

"It's bewildering that our anti-war crowd, while anxious to discredit our troops with lies, ignores the very real depredations of trigger-happy contractors - who don't answer to military discipline."

Peters notes that this is the fault of both Democrats and Republicans who underfunded our ground forces to the point where the security job couldn't be performed by soldiers and Marines.

"So the Bush administration 'outsourced' the work to thugs, vultures and cons. We wasted billions. And virtually every major contract to rebuild Iraq has failed to meet its goals. And corporations that fail face no penalty. They just get new contracts."

Yes, there are some honorable veterans serving in security details, but Peters adds, "a few bad apples don't just spoil the barrel - they destroy the orchard."

"Iraq's government responded to last weekend's bloodshed by ordering Blackwater out of the country. Now our diplomats are bullying Iraqi officials to let the company stay."

[On Friday, Blackwater was allowed to stay in Iraq in a "limited" capacity.]

Iran: The White House is promoting a third round of sanctions in the UN over the next week or so, including discussions with the main players?France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China. After all, sports fans, Iran continues to blow off earlier UN demands to halt its uranium-enrichment efforts.

And Iran is playing with its traditional enemies, such as the Taliban, in its ongoing effort to hurt the U.S. This week a major arms shipment from Iran to the Taliban was intercepted in Afghanistan, one that included armor-piercing bombs.

I do have to say the comments on war with the mullahs by the French foreign minister were way overblown in the press, but what is most encouraging under the new government of President Nicolas Sarkozy and his foreign policy is France's increased support for playing hardball with Iran, including Sarkozy's call to French companies to stop doing business with it.

Lebanon: Tehran, of course, working hand-in-hand with Syria, would love to see this nation's presidential election process, which is slated to commence next week, fall apart. The assassination of MP Antoine Ghanem the other day was the 4th member of parliament to be taken out since Feb. 2005, and the Syrian inspired assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. 10 other anti-Syrian figures, including leading journalists, have been killed during this time.

The ruling March 14 coalition is now left with 68 seats out of 128 in parliament and a simple majority of 65 is needed to replace Syrian butt-boy Emile Lahoud as president.

But 2/3s need to be in attendance for a quorum (this is going to be a long affair, possibly lasting months), and Hizbullah and its pro-Syrian supporters could easily boycott the process?.which brings us to?

Israel: Everyone wants to know, just what happened on Sept. 6? The consensus is Israeli warplanes struck some kind of nuclear facility in northern Syria near the border with Turkey; an act of nuclear preemption similar to the 1981 Israeli raid on Iraq's Osirak nuclear complex. The rumors are that North Korea has been supplying Syria with components and/or material for a fledgling program. No one knows for sure, though, because of a virtually total news blackout. Many, though, are pointing to the encouraging sign that the Arab world issued no real protests, which some are reading as a signal to Iran; seeing as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for starters, are increasingly concerned about the intentions of its belligerent neighbor.

So until we know for sure, there is little left to say, except I couldn't help but think back to the Clinton administration's bombing of a pill factory in Sudan. Yet the authoritative Jane's Defense Weekly reported earlier that back on July 23, there was an accident in Syria that claimed the lives of dozens of Syrians and Iranians as a result of an explosion when Iranian 'experts' were attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a missile.

[As an aside, it's also interesting how the latest round of six- party talks on North Korea's nuclear program were suddenly cancelled, though there are reports they may start up again next week.]

Pakistan: Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri declared war on President Pervez Musharraf, this while an election has been set for Oct. 6 following a ruling that Musharraf can run for president while still serving as army chief.

You talk about a fluid situation, there is a new story here every day. Oct. 18 is a key date because that is when former leader Benazir Bhutto returns to the country, thus the rush to hold elections beforehand; Musharraf and Bhutto having apparently broken off their power-sharing negotiations. All this while the Supreme Court has yet to decide on the entire process, including the fate of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was sent back into exile after but four hours on Pakistani soil.

Musharraf's term as president expires Nov. 15, and at last word he has vowed to step down as military chief if reelected. But critics say, how can you trust him? Musharraf, after all, has long said he would give up one of his dual posts ever since he took over in the 1999 coup.

Back to bin Laden, a Saudi Islamist and prominent cleric, Sheikh Salman al-Odah, spoke out against him.

"How many innocent people, elderly men and children have been killed or displaced under the al-Qaeda banner? Would you be happy to meet God carrying the burden [of their death] on your shoulders?

"What did we gain from the total destruction of a people as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who benefits from the attempts to turn Morocco, Algeria, Saudi Arabis and other countries into scared countries where people don't feel secure?" [Agence France Presse]

Why can't more Islamists say this?

Japan: As I write, the Liberal Democratic Party is about to select 71-year-old Yasuo Fukuda to replace Shinzo Abe as prime minister. Fukuda is an advocate of a less U.S.-centric foreign policy and has been critical of Abe's proposal for an "arc of freedom" that would include India, the United States and Australia - but not China.

"The U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone and we must place weight on that," said Fukuda. "But if there are deficiencies in other areas, we should fix them. China is making efforts towards a free economy, so if we say they must change their system completely, that would seem to be rejecting them. We need to cooperate instead."

At least Fukuda said Beijing must explain its big increase in defense spending. He also said he would stay away from the Tokyo war shrine that miffs both China and South Korea.

China / Taiwan: The two were close to an agreement on the island's role in the Olympic torch relay, and then it suddenly collapsed and now the International Olympic Committee itself said Taiwan will not be part of the relay after all. The dispute arose over the use of the flag. Beijing insisted Taiwan fly the Olympic flag of Chinese Taipei, the name under which Taiwan participates. But Taiwanese leaders said they couldn't accept this.

On the issue of UN membership, Secretary General Ban said it was illegal under UN rules to accept Taiwan's application; a decision that China of course applauded as reaffirmation of the one-China principle. But Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian is determined to hold his March referendum on a name change to "Taiwan," which China views as a call for independence. The U.S. State Department is adamantly opposed to this move.

France: President Sarkozy has begun his attempt to overhaul the country's overly generous pension system and, as you'd expect, he is meeting stiff resistance. Many civil service employees, for example, can retire at 50 with generous benefits.

But in another controversial move, the parliament is debating proposals to tighten entry requirements for relatives of immigrants who want to join their families in France. Under the bill, immigrant families would need to prove they are financially solvent and can speak French. Sarkozy has set up deportation quotas, promising to send home 25,000 illegal immigrants in 2007 alone. Civil liberties groups are up in arms over this.

Russia: As the Arctic sea ice melts to its lowest level in recorded history, and as shipping routes through the Northwest Passage open, Russia says it has conclusive evidence the Lomonsov Ridge, which runs hundreds of miles along the bottom of the Arctic seabed below the North Pole, is part of the adjoining continental shelf of the Russian Federation. Ergo, all mineral and oil and gas assets are Russia's as well. Russia will present its evidence to the UN. Of course Russia could also claim eminent domain and boot Mr. and Mrs. Claus, their elves and reindeer from their enchanting home.

Belgium: There are growing calls for a breakup between the two major ethnic groups, the Flemish (or Phlegmers) and the Walloons; the former being Dutch-speaking, the latter favoring French. Three months after a general election, a government has yet to be formed.

Now ordinarily this really wouldn't be something I gave a damn about, given Belgium's minimal importance, but the separatist Flemish Bloc is an extremist party that bears watching, as it's indicative of broader trends across the continent.

Africa: Historic flooding in the west, in countries such as Ghana, is taking a horrible toll and disease will spread. These areas aren't used to the record rains and are totally unprepared for the growing humanitarian crisis.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces.

God bless America.

---

Gold closed at $738?time to hock that class ring!
Oil, $81.62?time to drill a hole in your backyard!

Returns for the week 9/17-9/21

Dow Jones +2.8% [13820]
S&P 500 +2.8% [1525]
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +3.8%
Nasdaq +2.7% [2671]

Returns for the period 1/1/07-9/21/07

Dow Jones +10.9%
S&P 500 +7.6%
S&P MidCap +9.6%
Russell 2000 +3.2%
Nasdaq +10.6%

Bulls 53.9
Bears 27.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]

Have a great week. I'm off to Ireland for a few days but where I'm staying is the one place in the world where the Internet service is non-existent. So?I won't be answering your e-mails until I return.

Brian Trumbore

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