|
Week
in Review
For
the week 9/17/2007 - 9/21/2007
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Wall
Street...Give me 50!
The Federal
Reserve met this week and in a surprise move lowered the key
short-term funds rate 50 basis points, not the expected 25,
to 4.75 percent after holding the line at 5.25 percent since
June 2006. In its accompanying statement the Fed offered:
"Economic
growth was moderate during the first half of the year, but
the tightening of credit conditions has the potential to intensify
the housing correction and to restrain economic growth more
generally. Today's action is intended to help forestall some
of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise
arise from the disruptions in financial markets and to promote
moderate growth over time."
Wall Street
took the rate cut bait and ran with it, back into its den,
or up in some secure branch, and devoured it like a mongoose
that's just strangled a cobra. But wanting more, frothing
at the mouth, and finding no road kill, traders began to do
the next best thing; bid up stocks for a second straight week.
It didn't
matter that the U.S. dollar was hitting mega-year or all-
time lows against other currencies, such as the euro and the
Canadian dollar, the latter now at parity for the first time
since the 1970s.
And it
didn't matter that gold, normally a harbinger of all things
bad when it takes flight, soared to its highest levels since
January 1980, or that crude oil hit a high of its own, touching
$84 before finishing the week near $82?still it's first weekly
close at this level.
It didn't
matter that the crisis in commercial paper, worldwide, is
still a factor, even if a diminished one for the time being,
or that the leveraged buyout premium that had helped propel
stocks the first half of the year was officially kaput.
And it
certainly didn't matter that everyone's number one asset,
outside of those on the Forbes 400 list of billionaires, their
home, is no longer rising 8% a year; more likely than not
it's falling.
Yet Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional committee on Thursday
that "Global financial losses have far exceeded even the most
pessimistic estimates" for the mortgage sector.
Speak
for yourself, Bennie Boy. Some of us were bang on, especially
compared to your prior musings.
If nothing
else this column is consistent. It's gets a little repetitive,
for sure, and I'm early with many of my bigger themes, such
as the Nasdaq Bubble, concerns over Russia's political situation,
or real estate. But it's been about a key word regarding this
last one, "affordability," around the world.
WIR 5/29/04
"Yes,
since World War II, nationwide, housing values haven't declined
in any single year, but tell that to California homeowners
during the period 1989-1997, or Houston residents during the
oil bust of the 1980s. No doubt, many parts of the country
have more diversified economies than they once did, as in
the above two cases, but the watchword is 'affordability'
and in large swaths of America, folks are either stretching
beyond their means or simply can't make the move.
"Housing
was the prime source of the wealth effect that helped carry
the economy through the post-2000 bubble period, as people
saw their #1 asset appreciate at 8%+ a year and then borrowed
against it. And heck, I know I'm a broken record on this topic
and have zero credibility by now, but the big gains are in
and now we wait to see if the next move is down or sideways.
Either way, many won't feel as wealthy a few years hence,
if not sooner, unless there is a spectacular rally on Wall
Street, and consumer spending is bound to suffer."
WIR 4/2/05
"Remember,
the bubble isn't just a U.S. story, it's global; whether we're
talking Britain, Spain, Australia, or China."
WIR 5/27/06
"Ask anyone
who's been to Europe in the past few years, chatting up a
few blokes in a pub, and you'll find everyone is buying a
second home in Spain, to cite but one prominent example; thanks
in no small part to the prevalence of low-cost airlines that
make it far easier to jet away for the weekend. But these
same communities are going to slide like the rest."
WIR 5/12/07
"So pray
the rest of the globe doesn't catch the cold we appear to
be developing, though of course it will because it is suffering
from the same chief symptom we have?a real estate bubble.
Ours has popped. The rest are in the early stages of doing
so; whether it's Britain, Ireland, out of control Moscow,
Spain, or Australasia. And you can take that to the bank."
This week,
for the first time that I can remember (at least it's not
in any of his 'monthly outlooks' this year), PIMCO's Bill
Gross specifically mentioned real estate bubbles in "Ireland,
the UK, and Spain." And in my daily reading I saw these headlines
in just the past few days.
From the
Sydney Morning Herald:
"Housing
affordability has worsened (in Australia) as the pace of house
price growth has outstripped increases in disposable income,
said the report by Fujitsu and JP Morgan?.
" 'It
is really quite difficult now for many people to afford to
buy property. There is huge demand, huge drive to own your
own property,' said the consultant at Fujitsu."
The New
Zealand Herald:
"A bank
survey of residential real estate sector sentiment has presented
a pessimistic picture, with many professionals saying the
market has turned down fast?.
"A valuer
[appraiser] said some prices were 'easing backwards' and valuation
work was very slow?
"Property
investors said the market had turned and the peak had been
reached."
Call this
the popping of the "Lord of the Rings" bubble, in actuality.
London
Times
"House
prices across much of Western Europe have stalled or begun
to fall as spiraling borrowing costs and fears of over- supply
take their toll on markets from Ireland to Spain, an industry
survey has revealed.
"The German
housing market has been hit hardest. A glut of property for
sale in former East Germany dragged down price inflation countrywide,
leaving the national average down 6.9 percent over the 12
months to the end of June."
Ben Bernanke
may not really know what the heck is going on, but while the
focus this week was to some extent on the dollar, gold and
oil, when it comes to the Big Picture, globally, it's still
about real estate by my way of thinking, linked with massive
debt loads.
The thing
is, as I've noted on countless occasions, the picture is unfolding
at various rates of speed, as proved yet again in the above
anecdotes. I said long ago there would be no recession in
2007, but I've been focusing on 2008 because I felt by then
it would all come to a head when the decline in a chief asset's
value finally begins to impact consumer spending?and thus
earnings. Frankly, some of the other items we've been concerning
ourselves with the past two months are noise.
None of
this means stocks can't still rally. I've almost given up
trying to predict the market. I also said the past few weeks
the Federal Reserve was irrelevant, outside of a few days'
response to a change in interest rate policy, and I stand
by that. The Fed, as Bernanke and former chairman Alan Greenspan
both said this week, can't be totally blamed for the housing
bubble. But accomplices? Yes.
For now,
I agree with Yale Professor Robert Shiller's statement to
a Senate committee.
"The decline
in house prices stands to create future dislocations, like
the credit crisis we have just seen."
Street
Bytes
--Wall
Street's rally continued due in no small part to earnings
reports from the likes of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Morgan
Stanley and Goldman Sachs. In the instance of the first three
results generally weren't as bad as feared, while Goldman
Sachs simply blew the door off. Goldman added insult to injury,
when it came to its competitors, because while the others
were announcing writedowns in their mortgage and derivative
holdings, Goldman announced it scored a profit of $900 million
from 'shorting' mortgages.
But while
no doubt the larger investment banks are far more diversified
than they once were, particularly in terms of international
revenue streams, some could still be considered ticking time
bombs and you and I have no idea to what extent they really
recognized fair market value with their derivatives holdings,
many of which haven't traded in weeks so how the heck can
you price them? And you still have the issue of off- balance
sheet vehicles, which Greenspan correctly labeled a "disaster
waiting to happen."
It would
also appear the leveraged buyout game is dead, this being
a major source of income for the Street in terms of advisory
fees. Plus some are still holding gobs of LBO debt, waiting
for deals to close, while others are reneging on transactions
they cut with the private-equity side of the game. Such was
the case late Friday when Goldman and KKR backed out of a
deal for audio-products manufacturer Harman International,
which saw its shares plunge from $110 to $82 on the news.
Back to
the weak dollar, yes, it's splendiferous for U.S. multinationals
as their exports are cheaper. But the flip side is we are
now importing inflation in higher prices for foreign goods,
let alone the fact European manufacturers, for one, are feeling
major pain as their own exports plummet. A key Euro manufacturing
index hit a two-year low this week. Personally, I'm about
to get slaughtered in a trip overseas.
--U.S.
Treasury Yields
6-mo.
4.07% 2-yr. 4.04% 10-yr. 4.62% 30-yr. 4.89%
There
was some inflation news and if you choose to ignore all the
stuff we'd generally consider important, like the price of
wheat, milk, and beer, the 'core' figures that the government
foists on us were once again tame. Both producer and consumer
prices for August were up 0.2 percent. The core CPI, year-over-
year, is running at a 2.1 percent clip; not of particular
concern to the Fed. Bill Gross, incidentally, is calling for
the Fed to eventually lower the funds rate to 3.75 percent
as PIMCO sees growth in the U.S. economy slowing to a 1.25-1.75
percent rate over the next 12 months.
Back to
housing, the Fed's move was designed in part to help homeowners
whose adjustable rate mortgages are about to reset, which
it will to a small extent, but the yield on the 10-year, from
which traditional mortgages are pegged, soared from 4.46%
to 4.62% after the Fed lowered short rates, thereby proving
once again they have zero control over the long end of the
yield curve. The 10-year rose because bond traders know that
inflation could yet be a concern if the dollar were to continue
to slide, which in turn portends higher rates for a myriad
of reasons, not least of which may be the need to protect
the value of the greenback.
--I continue
to focus more on gasoline and natural gas futures than the
price for a barrel of crude and until gasoline futures, which
finished the week around $2.10 (tack on 70 cents or so for
a pump price?with a little lag time), hits $2.30 plus, I'm
not going to start screaming as to its impact on the consumer.
That day is coming, however.
And I
do have to reiterate something I said a number of months ago.
I am NOT concerned about the flow of oil through the Strait
of Hormuz, even if 25 percent of the world's crude transits
through there. No doubt, should there be an incident, such
as with Iran, oil would immediately skyrocket to $100, but
within days the U.S. and its allies would unclog it and protect
the tankers.
--David
Rocker, former hedge-fund manager, in an op-ed for Barron's.
"When
highly leveraged strategies blow up, even the unleveraged
public may suffer great losses. Big stock market declines
breed fear, and lead to hasty investment decisions. Innocent
companies may lose access to capital. Demands for bailouts
by the Federal Reserve and other agencies proliferate. This
crisis atmosphere breeds political pressure to force the Fed
into unplanned and inappropriate policies. It seems unlikely
that the Fed would be contemplating cutting rates now if there
had been no market turbulence.
"As the
Fed has come to the rescue again, the question of what is
necessary to reduce the likelihood of future meltdowns remains.
Better predictive power is not enough. Market collapses have
occurred as a result of very-low-probability events hitting
highly leveraged portfolios.
"While
we have stepped back from the brink this time, we may be less
fortunate in the future. The use of excessive leverage to
enhance a manager's personal gain should no longer be tolerated.
The societal risk is simply too great. Transparency must be
increased and a real-time monitoring system must be put in
place.
"A world
of terrorism and broadening nuclear capacities is no place
for highly-leveraged investments to exist on a grand scale.
We no longer have the luxury of conducting an investigation
to identify the parties responsible for a massive collapse.
There is room to debate the regulations and legal powers required
to reduce leverage, but it is imperative that the debate begin
immediately."
--With
the Fed's move, us savers (and those on fixed income) got
screwed. Lower rates for our CDs and money market accounts.
Thanks, Ben.
--For
the record, August housing starts fell to their lowest level
in 12 years, as did building permits (an indicator of future
activity).
--What
a mess the Bank of England found itself in following the run
on the bank involving depositors of Northern Rock, a leading
UK mortgage lender. As Carter Dougherty of the International
Herald Tribune put it:
"After
weeks in which (Bank of England governor Mervyn King) preached
against rescuing investors who had made bad decisions, King
told a parliamentary committee that the bank had to walk a
fine line between financial stability and taking steps that
could encourage reckless behavior in the future," i.e., the
issue of 'moral hazard.'
King was
the one who blasted both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the
European Central Bank for bailing out the banks during the
current credit crisis, but as thousands rushed the doors of
Northern Rock branches when it announced it had severe problems
related to the subprime and commercial paper debacles, the
first run on a British bank in 140 years, the Bank of England
reversed course. The criticism was why it hadn't acted sooner,
such as in moving Northern Rock assets into a better capitalized
bank before the run started.
John McFall,
chairman of the Commons Treasury Committee, told King:
"People
were talking about Northern Rock. I think it is absurd that
you should come here and say you didn't know anything about
it. You were the guy in charge of financial stability?The
answers you have given us this morning (say) that you weren't
very much alert." [London Times]
Can it
happen here? Of course it can. We had a mini-preview when
rumors were swirling around Countrywide Bank about a month
ago.
--Inflation
in China is running at an 11-year high of 6.5 percent so the
government has begun freezing items Beijing controls such
as oil, electricity and water. The Communist party has a crucial
meeting in October when it will choose the senior leadership
for the next five years. There are fears the spike in food
prices, in particular, will cause severe problems for the
economy.
--Out
of nowhere, Friday, Mattel apologized to China over the recall
of Chinese-made toys, taking the blame for design flaws and
saying it had recalled more products, including what had been
said were lead-tainted toys, than justified. Mattel lawyers
were on hand during the extraordinary meeting in Beijing with
China's product safety chief. The Mattel executive vice president
who issued the apology was then sent to a reeducation camp
and will be allowed visitors once a year. Left unsaid was
the move helped save Christmas, though shares in Island of
Misfit Toys, which stood to profit from the mess, suddenly
tanked on news of the Mattel apology.
--The
European Court reaffirmed a 2004 antitrust decision of the
European Commission against Microsoft, wherein the Commission
had found that Microsoft abused its dominant position in the
market for desktop operating systems, freezing out the competition
in markets such as media player and server software. Microsoft
said it will accept the final judgment, which carries with
it a $690 million fine. Opponents say it will chill innovation
and discourage competition, and could prove dicey for other
dominant companies such as Google and Apple.
--Larry
Ellison's Oracle issued a solid earnings report that aided
in Wall Street's positive tone. He then spent a $billion on
another yacht.
--The
National Retail Federation is predicting holiday sales will
rise just 4% this year, the smallest gain since 2002.
--There
continue to be concerns over various illnesses in China, including
pig disease (a major cause for the spike in food prices there)
which is devastating farms throughout the country. The virus
has also now been found in Vietnam and Burma and you never
know which of the viruses could one day mutate. Of particular
interest is Guangdong province (in the south next to Hong
Kong), where earlier cases of bird flu were reported, including
a new outbreak among ducks. A Hong Kong newspaper editorialized
this week that "Alarm Bells Are Ringing" a day after the city
suspended imports from Guangdong. [Maureen Fan / Washington
Post]
--To qualify
for Forbes' latest list of the 400 wealthiest people in the
U.S. you now need $1.3 billion. Bill Gates remains #1 with
a net worth of $59 billion and Warren Buffett is second at
$52 billion. 270 of the 400 are entirely self-made. The other
130 are spoiled brats who are the last people you'd want to
spend any time with at a party, not that they would give you
the time of day.
--Two
of our nation's bigger dirtballs were in the news this week.
Securities lawyer William Lerach pleaded guilty to conspiracy
involving his former firm, now known as Milberg Weiss. Lerach
was king of the class-action lawsuit and earned for Milberg
Weiss an estimated $216 million. But Milberg Weiss, and Lerach,
paid $11 million in kickbacks to plaintiffs in more than 150
cases. Lerach admitted that typically the plaintiffs received
secret payments of 10 percent of the attorneys' fees, which
were not disclosed to the courts.
And then
Melvyn Weiss himself was indicted for his role in the scheme.
Milberg Weiss LLP was also charged with obstruction of justice.
From 1983 to 2005, Mr. Weiss took in about $210 million as
his share of the profits. Lerach agreed to give up $7.75 million,
for starters, and faces a prison term. Weiss, if convicted,
could face more than 40 years. He was known to carry around
"thousands of dollars in cash from New York to Florida" to
compensate plaintiffs for taking the lead in class actions,
according to court documents.
--I got
a kick out of the video of the jerk at the University of Florida
who was tasered at a Sen. John Kerry appearance. I would have
tasered him too, only earlier. But I see that Taser International
received an order for 700 devices from the U.S. Forest Service
to aid in the undeclared war between the animal kingdom and
us. At least I'm assuming this is what the order was for.
--Zimbabwe's
inflation rate "slowed to 6,592 percent in August from a year
earlier, down from a record 7,634 percent in July, the government's
Central Statistical Office said." [Reuters] We congratulate
President Robert Mugabe for this wonderful achievement, even
as ? of Zimbabweans have left the country, with about 5,000
more a day still streaming into South Africa, causing major
problems there. [Don't pay any attention to the stories of
a political settlement this week that would give more power
to the opposition. At this point it just doesn't matter. The
country is dead, finished. Change the name and start over.]
--My portfolio:
I forgot to mention last time that I have been nibbling at
the oil sector again, selling some of another holding to keep
my allocation basically in line with the 80% cash / 20% equities
recommendation I've touted. And with $80 oil my two solar
plays have been doing well, though these are volatile suckers.
As for my China biodiesel holding, it's stuck in a vat of
vegetable oil.
--Finally,
astronomers have concluded that Neptune has the strongest
winds of any planet in the Solar system, up to 1,200 miles
an hour or CAT 98 status. Oil companies would have trouble
keeping their workers on deep-water platforms in these kinds
of conditions, I imagine.
Foreign
Affairs
Iraq:
If you're looking for good news, USA Today had a story on
Friday that the "alliance-building initiative is spreading."
The fact that there have been some advances on the military
end has certainly impeded Democratic efforts in Congress to
change the strategy. So the surge continues.
But nothing
of a positive nature has occurred politically and with the
formal exit of Moqtada al-Sadr's faction from the ruling Shiite
Alliance, the Maliki government only has the support of half
of parliament.
Then there
is the issue of the 20,000 to 50,000 private security guards
in Iraq. The fact no one can pin down an exact number speaks
volumes to yours truly. These mini-militias are best exemplified
by Blackwater. Retired Lieut.-Colonel Ralph Peters commented
from his perch at the New York Post.
"Picture
foreign diplomats racing through Midtown [Manhattan] - in
armored SUVs, with automatic weapons bristling from the windows.
It's up to you to get out of their way.
"Then
a car backfires in Times Square - sounds like a shot. At the
corner of 42nd and Broadway, the diplomats' security guards
open fire in all directions. Civilians fall dead and wounded
by the dozen. The diplomats drive on.
"How would
we like it?
"That's
the situation in Baghdad, where the lawless actions of mercenaries
on steroids undercut the progress made at such great cost
by our troops.
"Last
weekend, a convoy ferrying nervous-Nellie diplomats (do we
have any other kind?) panicked. The guards, employed by Blackwater,
shot the hell out of civilians going about their business
in downtown Baghdad.
"Nine
dead, two dozen wounded. Given what we know now, it looks
like a war crime.
"It's
bewildering that our anti-war crowd, while anxious to discredit
our troops with lies, ignores the very real depredations of
trigger-happy contractors - who don't answer to military discipline."
Peters
notes that this is the fault of both Democrats and Republicans
who underfunded our ground forces to the point where the security
job couldn't be performed by soldiers and Marines.
"So the
Bush administration 'outsourced' the work to thugs, vultures
and cons. We wasted billions. And virtually every major contract
to rebuild Iraq has failed to meet its goals. And corporations
that fail face no penalty. They just get new contracts."
Yes, there
are some honorable veterans serving in security details, but
Peters adds, "a few bad apples don't just spoil the barrel
- they destroy the orchard."
"Iraq's
government responded to last weekend's bloodshed by ordering
Blackwater out of the country. Now our diplomats are bullying
Iraqi officials to let the company stay."
[On Friday,
Blackwater was allowed to stay in Iraq in a "limited" capacity.]
Iran:
The White House is promoting a third round of sanctions in
the UN over the next week or so, including discussions with
the main players?France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China.
After all, sports fans, Iran continues to blow off earlier
UN demands to halt its uranium-enrichment efforts.
And Iran
is playing with its traditional enemies, such as the Taliban,
in its ongoing effort to hurt the U.S. This week a major arms
shipment from Iran to the Taliban was intercepted in Afghanistan,
one that included armor-piercing bombs.
I do have
to say the comments on war with the mullahs by the French
foreign minister were way overblown in the press, but what
is most encouraging under the new government of President
Nicolas Sarkozy and his foreign policy is France's increased
support for playing hardball with Iran, including Sarkozy's
call to French companies to stop doing business with it.
Lebanon:
Tehran, of course, working hand-in-hand with Syria, would
love to see this nation's presidential election process, which
is slated to commence next week, fall apart. The assassination
of MP Antoine Ghanem the other day was the 4th member of parliament
to be taken out since Feb. 2005, and the Syrian inspired assassination
of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. 10 other anti-Syrian
figures, including leading journalists, have been killed during
this time.
The ruling
March 14 coalition is now left with 68 seats out of 128 in
parliament and a simple majority of 65 is needed to replace
Syrian butt-boy Emile Lahoud as president.
But 2/3s
need to be in attendance for a quorum (this is going to be
a long affair, possibly lasting months), and Hizbullah and
its pro-Syrian supporters could easily boycott the process?.which
brings us to?
Israel:
Everyone wants to know, just what happened on Sept. 6? The
consensus is Israeli warplanes struck some kind of nuclear
facility in northern Syria near the border with Turkey; an
act of nuclear preemption similar to the 1981 Israeli raid
on Iraq's Osirak nuclear complex. The rumors are that North
Korea has been supplying Syria with components and/or material
for a fledgling program. No one knows for sure, though, because
of a virtually total news blackout. Many, though, are pointing
to the encouraging sign that the Arab world issued no real
protests, which some are reading as a signal to Iran; seeing
as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for starters, are increasingly
concerned about the intentions of its belligerent neighbor.
So until
we know for sure, there is little left to say, except I couldn't
help but think back to the Clinton administration's bombing
of a pill factory in Sudan. Yet the authoritative Jane's Defense
Weekly reported earlier that back on July 23, there was an
accident in Syria that claimed the lives of dozens of Syrians
and Iranians as a result of an explosion when Iranian 'experts'
were attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a missile.
[As an
aside, it's also interesting how the latest round of six-
party talks on North Korea's nuclear program were suddenly
cancelled, though there are reports they may start up again
next week.]
Pakistan:
Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri declared war on President Pervez
Musharraf, this while an election has been set for Oct. 6
following a ruling that Musharraf can run for president while
still serving as army chief.
You talk
about a fluid situation, there is a new story here every day.
Oct. 18 is a key date because that is when former leader Benazir
Bhutto returns to the country, thus the rush to hold elections
beforehand; Musharraf and Bhutto having apparently broken
off their power-sharing negotiations. All this while the Supreme
Court has yet to decide on the entire process, including the
fate of another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was
sent back into exile after but four hours on Pakistani soil.
Musharraf's
term as president expires Nov. 15, and at last word he has
vowed to step down as military chief if reelected. But critics
say, how can you trust him? Musharraf, after all, has long
said he would give up one of his dual posts ever since he
took over in the 1999 coup.
Back to
bin Laden, a Saudi Islamist and prominent cleric, Sheikh Salman
al-Odah, spoke out against him.
"How many
innocent people, elderly men and children have been killed
or displaced under the al-Qaeda banner? Would you be happy
to meet God carrying the burden [of their death] on your shoulders?
"What
did we gain from the total destruction of a people as happened
in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who benefits from the attempts to
turn Morocco, Algeria, Saudi Arabis and other countries into
scared countries where people don't feel secure?" [Agence
France Presse]
Why can't
more Islamists say this?
Japan:
As I write, the Liberal Democratic Party is about to select
71-year-old Yasuo Fukuda to replace Shinzo Abe as prime minister.
Fukuda is an advocate of a less U.S.-centric foreign policy
and has been critical of Abe's proposal for an "arc of freedom"
that would include India, the United States and Australia
- but not China.
"The U.S.-Japan
alliance is the cornerstone and we must place weight on that,"
said Fukuda. "But if there are deficiencies in other areas,
we should fix them. China is making efforts towards a free
economy, so if we say they must change their system completely,
that would seem to be rejecting them. We need to cooperate
instead."
At least
Fukuda said Beijing must explain its big increase in defense
spending. He also said he would stay away from the Tokyo war
shrine that miffs both China and South Korea.
China
/ Taiwan: The two were close to an agreement on the island's
role in the Olympic torch relay, and then it suddenly collapsed
and now the International Olympic Committee itself said Taiwan
will not be part of the relay after all. The dispute arose
over the use of the flag. Beijing insisted Taiwan fly the
Olympic flag of Chinese Taipei, the name under which Taiwan
participates. But Taiwanese leaders said they couldn't accept
this.
On the
issue of UN membership, Secretary General Ban said it was
illegal under UN rules to accept Taiwan's application; a decision
that China of course applauded as reaffirmation of the one-China
principle. But Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian is determined
to hold his March referendum on a name change to "Taiwan,"
which China views as a call for independence. The U.S. State
Department is adamantly opposed to this move.
France:
President Sarkozy has begun his attempt to overhaul the country's
overly generous pension system and, as you'd expect, he is
meeting stiff resistance. Many civil service employees, for
example, can retire at 50 with generous benefits.
But in
another controversial move, the parliament is debating proposals
to tighten entry requirements for relatives of immigrants
who want to join their families in France. Under the bill,
immigrant families would need to prove they are financially
solvent and can speak French. Sarkozy has set up deportation
quotas, promising to send home 25,000 illegal immigrants in
2007 alone. Civil liberties groups are up in arms over this.
Russia:
As the Arctic sea ice melts to its lowest level in recorded
history, and as shipping routes through the Northwest Passage
open, Russia says it has conclusive evidence the Lomonsov
Ridge, which runs hundreds of miles along the bottom of the
Arctic seabed below the North Pole, is part of the adjoining
continental shelf of the Russian Federation. Ergo, all mineral
and oil and gas assets are Russia's as well. Russia will present
its evidence to the UN. Of course Russia could also claim
eminent domain and boot Mr. and Mrs. Claus, their elves and
reindeer from their enchanting home.
Belgium:
There are growing calls for a breakup between the two major
ethnic groups, the Flemish (or Phlegmers) and the Walloons;
the former being Dutch-speaking, the latter favoring French.
Three months after a general election, a government has yet
to be formed.
Now ordinarily
this really wouldn't be something I gave a damn about, given
Belgium's minimal importance, but the separatist Flemish Bloc
is an extremist party that bears watching, as it's indicative
of broader trends across the continent.
Africa:
Historic flooding in the west, in countries such as Ghana,
is taking a horrible toll and disease will spread. These areas
aren't used to the record rains and are totally unprepared
for the growing humanitarian crisis.
---
Pray for
the men and women of our armed forces.
God bless
America.
---
Gold closed
at $738?time to hock that class ring!
Oil, $81.62?time to drill a hole in your backyard!
Returns
for the week 9/17-9/21
Dow Jones
+2.8% [13820]
S&P 500 +2.8% [1525]
S&P MidCap +2.3%
Russell 2000 +3.8%
Nasdaq +2.7% [2671]
Returns
for the period 1/1/07-9/21/07
Dow Jones
+10.9%
S&P 500 +7.6%
S&P MidCap +9.6%
Russell 2000 +3.2%
Nasdaq +10.6%
Bulls
53.9
Bears 27.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]
Have a
great week. I'm off to Ireland for a few days but where I'm
staying is the one place in the world where the Internet service
is non-existent. So?I won't be answering your e-mails until
I return.
Brian
Trumbore
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