| Answer:
We
think the information in the two previous columns
combined with this week's government data is helpful
to those of you who believe in buying and holding
stocks - those of you who are in the market for the
long term.
On
August 14th we reported on the rise in productivity
(click HERE)
to read and then on the 21st, on the decline in nationwide
unemployment (click HERE)
to read.
Now
we have good news regarding new home sales and
durable goods orders.
New
Home Sales
New
homes sales were up almost 10% in July from June according
to the Commerce Department. Sales rose to a seasonally
adjusted annual rate of 433,000. According to the
government, that's the highest pace since last September.
Another
way to look at it is that the sales rate is up 31.6%
from this year's low which took place in January,
2009.
Sales
were highest in the Northeast (up 32.4%), followed
by the South where they were up 16.2%. In the West,
the increase was only 1% and in the Midwest, sales
actually dropped by 7.6%.
A
word of caution? it is possible a portion of the
increase is due to the federal tax credit which grants
up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers. (This credit
ends on November 30th.) Nevertheless, the statistics
overall are positive.
Durable
Goods Orders
According
to the Commerce Department, new orders for manufactured
durable goods rose in July by 4.9% -- the largest
percentage since July 2007. And, it was the third
increase in the last four months.
The
figures took analysts by surprise; they had predicted
only a 3% gain.
Before
we go further, let me note that the phrase durable
goods applies only to goods expected to last at least
three years, such as cars and planes The increase
in durable goods orders, was in fact led by the aviation
industry followed by the automobile sector.
Car
orders actually rose 0.9%, perhaps due in part to
the "Cash for Clunkers" program, officially known
as the Car Allowance Rebate Scheme. The plan gave
owners of old cars up to $4,500 when they traded in
their "clunker" for a new model.
According
to the U.S. Transportation Department, the Clunkers
scheme, which ran from July 1 to August 25, created
700,000 new car sales. The total amount of rebates
paid out was approximately $2.88 billion.
Bottom
line:
Increases
in these two official government-based economic indicators
bode well for stocks, but bear in mind that we still
have serious unemployment and a huge budget deficit.
Nevertheless, we are certainly in a better place than
we were a year ago.
On
a more personal note, if you are currently a renter
in one of the areas of the country where new housing
sales are on the rise, and if you were eventually
thinking of buying a house, this might be the time
to speed up your search!
Good
luck!
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