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Just how
miserable are you? If you don't know, then perhaps an excursion
to The
US Misery Index might help you to establish one dimension
for your despair. Chicago economist Robert Barro, author of
the book, Nothing is Sacred: Economic Ideas for the New
Millennium (2002), created this index in the 1970s. The
index is based upon the simple equation where the unemployment
rate is added to the inflation rate to equal the Misery Index.
At the
moment, the sum equals 4.7% + 3.82% = 8.52%, or less than
10 percent of the population. You might ask, then, why everyone
seems so miserable lately, especially since today's Misery
Index is far less than the 21.98% sum that occurred in June
1980 and closer to the lowest percentage of 2.97%, recorded
in July 1953.
Allow
me to offer you some support for your perspective on misery.
A Parade Magazine survey performed by Mark Clements
Research in April this year showed that 48% of Americans believe
they're worse off than their parents. See? If you're miserable,
then you fall into line with about 150 million other American
residents, or at least with almost one-half the number of
individuals who participated in this survey.
But, why
is the misery so much more palpable in the survey than it
is in the Misery Index? According to economist Milton Friedman,
the higher misery index is based more on a "Permanent Income
Theory" rather than on unemployment and inflation rates. This
theory assumes that people measure where they are today relative
to where they expected to be a few years ago, rather than
on knowledge about what the average income was four decades
ago.
Say that
you planned to increase your salary over the years to equal
two times your age, and at age 41 your salary equals only
$41,000 rather than $82,000. While you might feel like a failure,
your income equals a male's median income for 2005. And, if
you're a woman who makes $41,000 per year, you make $10,000
more than most median-income women in this country. I would
call that a success, depending on how you handle that income.
Tom Van
Riper, the writer who quoted Friedman in a
recent Forbes.com article, adds that when Americans
compare themselves to the top 1% of America's population who
earn a disproportionate salary, the misery mounts. Those 2005
median incomes, represented by $41,386 for men and $31,858
for women are, without a doubt, paltry in comparison to Tiger
Woods' $87 million dollar salary that same year.
I have
my own theory about misery when it's equated with money. My
formulation is based upon U.S. Commerce department numbers
that show the average American's Personal Savings Rate over
the years. In 1985, the personal savings rate equaled 11%,
the highest percentage recorded between 1965 and 2005. In
2005, however, that personal savings rate equaled negative
0.4%, one of the lowest amounts recorded during that same
period.
Personal
saving is the amount that remains from disposable personal
income after expenditures on personal consumption, interest,
and net current transfer payments have been finalized. The
amount left over is available to acquire financial assets
such as investments, to use towards acquiring a home, or to
reduce liabilities by repaying principle on mortgages or consumer
debt.
But, how
can that rate dip below zero? The Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) explains
the problem:
"If
expenditures on personal consumption, interest, and net current
transfers exceed disposable personal income in a quarter,
personal saving will be negative. This can occur because current
income is not the only possible source of funds for consumption
expenditures?"
When the
consumer cannot meet mortgage payments because he lost a job,
for instance, he loses his home and creates a negative personal
saving rate. And, if he dips into deposits saved in previous
periods, sells financial or tangible assets, or borrows to
meet debt, then that person can become so miserable that immediate
comfort seems impossible to achieve. Although the BEA claims
that spending must eventually fall back into line with income,
you might question how that alignment could occur when a household
emergency wipes out assets.
Bankruptcy
can bring some relief in some situations. Alternately, when
an individual's income increases, he can alleviate some misery
as he allocates income to reduce debts and to increase assets.
That last road can seem endless, but only because it requires
a great deal of self-discipline. Additionally, it helps when
a person is insured against emergency situations. Insurance
of any kind can bring some very real peace of mind, if the
individual can afford it.
The real
joy killer is represented by increased health insurance costs.
Premiums that workers pay for employer-sponsored health insurance
rose on the average of 7.7 percent this year, and have increased
84 percent since 2000, according to the Kaiser
Family Foundation, a health-issues research center.
Many more median-income Americans worry that they may not
be able to pay that health insurance bill in the future, because
housing costs and increased energy and gas costs have cut
into their salaries.
So, if
you feel miserable, you're not alone. In fact, you may have
more company than that Parade Magazine survey suggests.
But, if you built up a debt with unnecessary purchases over
the past few years and if you avoided personal saving as well,
I'll have to ask you to step out of the misery line. Paste
on a grin, get help to turn your finances around, and don't
compare your lifestyle with the rich.
In other
words, fight for your right to save for your future, even
if it's just one step at a time. In the long run, self-respect
- not money - is the best anti-misery medicine.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
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