September and October
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

Historically, the September-October time period is known for historic market bottoms, tops, and crashes.  Just in the past ten years, the S&P 500 hit a key cycle low of 776 on Oct. 9, 2002, and then exactly five years later, Oct. 9, 2007, hit its all-time high of 1565; the latter a figure that may take awhile to surpass given today’s S&P at around 1000, after bottoming at 676 this past March 9 on a closing basis.

Since 1950, though, specifically Jan. 1950-April 2008, September was up just 25 times and down 32 when it comes to the S&P 500 [33 including Sept. ‘08], with an average decline of 0.5%, the worst month for the index.  October, though, despite high-profile crashes in 1929 and 1987, for starters, is up an average 0.9% over the same period, with 35 up and 23 down [24 including Oct. ‘08]*

*The return figures are per the 2009 Stock Trader’s Almanac.  Obviously, they are somewhat worse when you look at the Sept. / Oct. return figures for 2008, but these were not included in the Almanac’s formal reporting period of 1/50-4/08.

Nasdaq, which had its inception in January 1971, has witnessed an average return of
-0.7% for September thru 4/08, while October is up 0.8%.

S&P 500 monthly percentage returns….September…October

1999… -2.9 [Sept.]… +6.3 [Oct.]
2000… -5.3... -0.5
2001… -8.2… +1.8
2002… -11.0… +8.6
2003… -1.2… +5.5
2004… +0.9… +1.4
2005… +0.7… -1.8
2006… +2.5… +3.2
2007… +3.6… +1.5
2008… -9.1… -16.9

Sources:  2009 Stock Trader’s Almanac, edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch;
Standardandpoors.com

Wall Street History returns Sept. 18.