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Presidential
Elections and Equity Returns
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Historically, the numbers have painted
a powerful picture. Of course the biggest reason for
the positive bias is the fact that Congress and the
administration are typically priming the fiscal pumps
to ensure that all of us feel good when we enter the
voting booth. Most of the time, "It's about the economy,
stupid" has a truthful ring to it and it's certainly
looking like 2008 is more of the same.
Returns
[total return for S&P]
Year?..S&P
500?..Small Caps
2008??...??...............??
2007??+5.5???-5.2
2004?...+10.9??..+18.4
2003?...+28.7??..+60.7
2000??-9.1.............-3.6
1999?...+21.1..........+29.8
1996?...+23.1..........+17.6
1995?...+37.4..........+34.5
1992??+7.7...........+23.4
1991?...+30.6..........+44.6
1988?...+16.8..........+22.9
1987??+5.2............-9.3
1984??+6.3............-6.7
1983?...+22.5..........+39.7
1980?...+32.4..........+39.9
1979?...+18.4..........+43.5
1976??+23.8.........+57.4
1975??+37.2.........+52.8
1972??+19.0..........+4.4
1971??+14.3.........+16.5
1968??+11.1.........+36.0
1967??+24.0.........+83.6
1964??+16.5.........+23.5
1963??+22.8.........+23.6
1960??..+0.5??..-3.3
1959??+12.0.........+16.4
1956??.+6.6...........+4.3
1955??+31.6.........+20.4
1952??+18.4..........+3.0
1951??+24.0..........+7.8
1948??+5.5............-2.1
1947??+5.7............+0.9
1944?....+19.8.........+53.7
1943?....+25.9.........+88.4
1940?.....-9.8............-5.2
1939??.-0.4............+0.4
1936??.+33.9........+64.8
1935??.+47.7........+40.2
[Sources:
Ibbotson Associates Yearbook, Morningstar]
Ibbotson
has employed various indices in calculating small
cap returns since 1926, namely the fifth capitalization
quintile of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange
for 1926-81, Dimensional Fund Advisors' Small Company
Fund, 1982-2001, and, since April 2001, the DFA Micro
Cap Fund.
Wall
Street History returns next week.
Brian
Trumbore
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