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2006...
and more
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Various market returns and benchmarks?..
2006
[Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and
S&P]
Dow
Jones?......+19.0
S&P 500??.?+15.8
Nasdaq???....+9.5
Tokyo????.+6.9 [Nikkei]
London???...+10.7 [FTSE]
Frankfurt???+22.0 [DAX]
Energy?all-time
highs
Oil,
$77.03 (7/14/06?West TX Intermediate?hit $78 intraday)
Unleaded gasoline futures, $2.92 (8/31/05?due to Katrina)
Natural gas futures, $15.37 (12/13/05?Katrina-related)
Key
historical figures
12/31/99
Dow
Jones?11497
S&P 500??.1469
Nasdaq???4069
Market
highs?2000
Dow
Jones?11722 (1/14)
S&P 500??1527 (3/24)*
Nasdaq??...5048 (3/10)*
*remains
all-time mark
12/31/06
Dow
Jones?12463?52-wk range [12510-10667]
S&P 500??1418?.52-wk range [1427-1223]
Nasdaq??...2415?.52-wk range [2465-2020]
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S&P
500 [Total return?including dividends]
1995?+37.4
1996?+23.1
1997?+33.4
1998?+28.6
1999?+21.0
2000?.-9.1
2001?-11.9
2002?-22.1
2003?+28.7
2004?+10.9
2005?+4.9
2006?+15.8
Nasdaq
1995?+39.9
1996?+22.7
1997?+21.6
1998?+39.6
1999?+85.6
2000?-39.3
2001?-21.1
2002?-31.5
2003?+50.0
2004?+8.6
2005?+1.4
2006?+9.5
Gold
12/96?$368
12/97?$289
12/98?$288
12/99?$289
12/00?$272
12/01?$279
12/02?$347
12/03?$416
12/04?$438
12/05?$519
12/06?$638
Oil
(Light Sweet Crude)
12/99?$25.20
12/00?$26.80
12/01?$19.84
12/02?$31.20
12/03?$32.52
12/04?$43.45
12/05?$61.04
12/06?$61.05
Interest
Rates?U.S. Treasury Yields
Date??..2-year?.10-year
12/31/99?6.24??..6.43
6/13/03?..1.01??..3.10?historic
lows in yield
12/31/03?1.82??..4.25
12/31/04?3.07??..4.22
12/31/05?4.40??..4.39
12/31/06?4.82??..4.72
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The
month of January supplies us with two interesting
indicators; the "first five days" early warning system
and the full-month barometer (which I'll cover next
week).
Employing
the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 36 times. In 31 of
these the market has then proceeded to post full-year
gains. [The record is more mixed, 11 up / 10 down,
in the 21 years where the market declined the first
five days.]
A
sampling?
S&P
500?Total return?1st 5 days / Jan.
1995???
+37.4%???.. +0.3%
1996??? +23.1????. +0.4
1997??? +33.4????. +1.0
1998??? +28.6????. -1.5
1999??? +21.0????. +3.7
2000???.. -9.1????.. -1.9
2001???. -11.9????. -1.8
2002???. -22.1????. +1.1
2003??? +28.7????. +3.4
2004??? +10.9????. +1.8
2005???..+4.9?????-2.1
2006???.+15.8????..+3.5
Source:
"Stock Trader's Almanac / 2006." *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. "Stock Trader's Almanac" only uses the
gross figure for the index without including dividends.
Have
a healthy and prosperous new year.
Wall
Street History returns next week with more data.
Brian
Trumbore
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