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Energy
Outlook
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
The Energy Information Administration,
an agency of the U.S. Government, just released its
annual report on the world energy and economic outlook.
Summarizing:
--Projecting
from 2003 to 2030, with world economic growth expected
to be at an annual rate of 3.8 percent, total world
consumption of marketed energy will expand from 421
quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to
563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion
Btu in 2030, or a 71- percent increase from 2003 to
2030.
--The
expected energy consumption will come from all sources.
Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection
period, but its share of total world energy consumption
declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in
2030, "Largely in response to higher world oil prices
in this year's outlook, which dampen oil demand in
the mid-term."
--Worldwide
oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per
day in 2003 (and 85 million today) to 98 million barrels
per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per
day in 2030. [Where the 100, let alone 118 mmbd is
going to come from is anyone's guess.]
--On
natural gas, the International Energy Outlook report
has projected that natural gas would be "the fastest
growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher
natural gas prices in IEO2006 make coal more cost-competitive,
especially in the electric power sector, and as a
result natural gas use and coal use increase at similar
rates. Natural gas rises by an average 2.4 percent
per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use
by an average of 2.5 percent per year."
--"The
industrial sector remains the most important end-use
consumer for natural gas worldwide, accounting for
52 percent of the total growth in natural gas use
in the projections; however, natural gas also remains
an important energy source in the electric power sector."
--"In
this year's outlook for coal, nearly all regions of
the world show some increase in coal use, except for
Japan. In Japan, the electricity sector continues
to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation.
In addition, with its population growing more slowly,
Japan's electricity demand is likely to grow slowly,
so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely
to be needed."
[I,
for one, never think enough about population trends
when mulling over the energy topic.]
--The
largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected
for China and India, where coal supplies are plentiful.
[We covered this last week as well.]
--As
for economic growth, the projected growth of 3.8 percent
annually from 2003 to 2030 is higher than the past
30 years because most of the countries expected to
see more rapid growth are developing nations "that
have undertaken significant reforms over the past
several years. Improved macroeconomic policies, trade
liberalization, more flexible exchange rate regimes,
and lower fiscal deficits have lowered their national
inflation rates, reduced uncertainty, and improved
their overall investment climates. More microeconomic
structural reforms, such as privatization and regulatory
reform, have also played key roles. In general, such
reforms have resulted in growth rates that are above
historical trends in most of these economies over
the past 5 to 10 years."
Source:
Energy Information Administration; eia.doe.gov
Next
week, a closer look at India's economy and the problems
with its educational system.
Brian
Trumbore
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