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The
Super Bowl and the Market
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Super Bowl Quiz:
What
was the cost of the top ticket to the first three
Super Bowls? Answer below.
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I
always like to get a jump on all those articles you'll
see about the impact of football's Super Bowl on the
financial markets. And, yes, there is also a tie-in
with a toy, the Super Ball.
In
the early 1960s, a scientist by the name of Norman
Stingley, working for the Bettis Rubber Co. of Whittier,
California, came up with a compound which he called
Zectron. Zectron's main property was that it had about
six times the bounce of ordinary rubber.
Well,
the folks at Bettis saw no use for it so they gave
the rights to Stingley who then took his product to
Wham-O Company, the same folks who made a fortune
on the Hula Hoop and the Frisbee. The Super Ball,
as it was quickly labeled, was released in 1965 and
over the course of the decade some 20 million were
sold.
But
what few folks may know is the fact that the Super
Ball ended up becoming the idea for the term "Super
Bowl." The first four contests between the NFL and
the AFL were labeled the "World Championship Game."
But back in the beginning, the owners were sitting
around trying to come up with a snappier name when
Lamar Hunt, the guiding light of the American Football
League and the owner of the AFL's Kansas City Chiefs,
remembered watching his daughter play with a high-bouncing
Super Ball a few days earlier and 'ball' morphed into
'bowl.' Voila. Super Bowl!
[While
'Super Bowl' was fairly well accepted right from the
start, all print material, including the actual tickets,
said "World Championship Game."]
Anyway,
when it comes to the Super Bowl and the market, until
the past 6 years the adage was that if a team from
the old NFL won the contest (including AFC entries
like the Pittsburgh Steelers?a former NFL team before
the merger of the two leagues), then the stock market
would rise. But Denver's two victories in 1998 and
1999 put that theory to rest (it being a traditional
AFC squad), as stocks rose 20%+ each year thereafter.
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Following
are the results and the total return of the S&P 500*
1966??????.No
game???? -10.1%
1967
Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10?.. +24.0%
1968
Green Bay 33 Oakland 14??? +11.1%
1969
New York Jets 16 Baltimore 7?. -8.5%
1970
Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7??. +4.0%
1971
Baltimore 16 Dallas 13???? +14.3%
1972
Dallas 24 Miami 3?????... +19.0%
1973
Miami 14 Washington 7???.. -14.7%
1974
Miami 24 Minnesota 7???.... -26.5%
1975
Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6??.. +37.2%
1976
Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17???.. +23.8%
1977
Oakland 32 Minnesota 14??? -7.2%
1978
Dallas 27 Denver 10????? +6.6%
1979
Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31???? +18.4%
1980
Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19??. +32.4%
1981
Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10??. -4.9%
1982
San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21? +21.4%
1983
Washington 27 Miami 17???. +22.5%
1984
L.A. Raiders 38 Washington 9?. +6.3%
1985
San Francisco 38 Miami 16??.. +32.2%
1986
Chicago 46 New England 10?.... +18.5%
1987
N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20???. +5.2%
1988
Washington 42 Denver 10??? +16.8%
1989
San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16? +31.5%
1990
San Francisco 55 Denver 10??. -3.2%
1991
N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19??? +30.6%
1992
Washington 37 Buffalo 24??? +7.7%
1993
Dallas 52 Buffalo 17????? +10.0%
1994
Dallas 30 Buffalo 13?????. +1.3%
1995
San Francisco 49 San Diego 26? +37.4%
1996
Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17???? +23.1%
1997
Green Bay 35 New England 21? +33.4%
1998
Denver 31 Green Bay 24???.. +28.6%
1999
Denver 34 Atlanta 19????... +21.0%
2000
St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16??? -9.1%
2001
Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7??. -11.9%
2002
New England 20 St. Louis 17?.. -22.1%
2003
Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21??.. +28.7%
2004
New England 32 Carolina 29?.. +10.9%
*Return
includes dividends.
And
now?your "exclusive" conclusions from the editor.
Playing
off the popular "over / under" bets that many find
so compelling, check this out.
In
each of the 9 years that the S&P 500 finished down,
the loser of the Super Bowl scored fewer than 20 points
(17 or less, specifically), while in each of the 9
years in which the loser scored more than 20 points,
the market finished up.
So,
this is where investors should be focusing. Loser
over 20, market is guaranteed to rise?ahem. Loser
under 20, odds are 31% the market will finish lower.
[9 down years in the 29 in which the loser scored
less than 20.]
Of
course this is all ridiculous, but it's the one time
a year I have the opportunity to be so.
And
remember, as always, bet with your head?not over it.
Sources:
Ibbotson
Associates
"Toys!" Don Wulffson
Quiz
Answer:
The
top ticket price for the first three Super Bowls was
$12. [For the next three it went to just $15.] Last
year it was $600 and I believe it is $700 or $750
for this coming one.
Brian
Trumbore
The
securities markets are subject to the risks of fluctuating
prices and the uncertainty of rates of return and
yields inherent in investing and past performance
is no guarantee of future results.
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