The Federal Reserve and the Markets
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

I thought we'd take a look back at the markets since June 30 of last year when the Federal Reserve began to raise the short-term federal funds rate from its historic bottom of 1.00%; eight increases of 25 basis points (bps), total, to take it up to 3.00%.

The dates listed are for the actual Fed moves which occurred on a Tuesday or Wednesday depending on whether the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee was a one- or two-day affair.

Using this as the guide then, I am showing the 'end of week' figures following the moves (to eliminate knee-jerk reaction data) for the 10-year Treasury and the S&P 500. [I also threw in the price of oil just for the heck of it.]

Of course what you see is the "conundrum" that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has spoken of in recent congressional testimony; that being while the Fed has hiked short rates up a full 2%, the key 10-year has actually fallen. Continued low rates at the 10- year level offer major support for the real estate sector which Greenspan on occasion has mused could be approaching bubble territory in some parts of the country. [I just think it's a flat-out bubble.]

No doubt the Federal Reserve would like to simply prick the bubble and see real estate cool in an orderly fashion. It was hoping to do this through a gradual rise in the 10-year, more or less commensurate with the rise in the funds rate; certainly at least closer to the 5-5.50% range than the current 4-4.50% one? thus the conundrum.

5/3/05??25 bps to 3.00%....4.26%....1171?.50.96

3/22/05?..25 bps to 2.75%....4.59%?1171?.54.84

2/2/05??25 bps to 2.50%....4.08%....1203?.46.48

12/14/04?25 bps to 2.25%....4.20%....1194?.46.28

11/10/04?25 bps to 2.00%....4.19%....1184?.47.32

9/21/04?..25 bps to 1.75%....4.03%....1110?.48.88

8/10/04?..25 bps to 1.50%....4.22%....1064?.46.03

6/30/04?..25 bps to 1.25%....4.46%....1125?.38.39

Using my "Week in Review" archives (the source for the above market data as well), following is a piece of my commentary from 7/3/04 after the Fed's initial rate increase.

"?in raising rates the expected 25 basis points?the Fed averred:

" 'Monetary policy remains accommodative?underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low?(but) policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.'

"So you'd think from this the Fed won't be overly aggressive in the coming months unless the inflation data goes berserk to the upside, and at least for this week you'd be hard pressed to find evidence of prices running wild. Certainly the bond market didn't think so?.

"One thing is for sure, the Fed's accommodative policy of the past few years has been all about propping up real estate, thus encouraging homeowners to use their chief asset as a piggybank for increased consumer spending."

Of course if the above from over ten months ago sounds familiar it's because little regarding this debate has changed since then.

Brian Trumbore