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The
Super Bowl and the Market
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Once
again, it's time for our look at the Super Bowl and
the market. Until the past 5-6 years, the adage was
that if a team from the old NFL won the contest (including
AFC entries like the Pittsburgh Steelers?a former
NFL team before the merger of the two leagues), then
the stock market would rise. But Denver's two victories
in 1998 and 1999 put that theory to rest (it being
a traditional AFC squad), as stocks rose 20%+ each
year thereafter.
Bottom
line, though, the market, as measured by the total
return on the S&P 500, has had 9 down years out of
the 37 in which there has been a Super Bowl and AFC
teams were victors in 7 of them. Ergo, if you're long
the market, go Philadelphia or Carolina.
Note:
I included 1966 just to give you a sense of the environment
before the games started.
Results
and the *total return of the S&P 500.
1966??????.No
game???? -10.1%
1967
Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10?.. +24.0%
1968
Green Bay 33 Oakland 14??? +11.1%
1969
New York Jets 16 Baltimore 7?. -8.5%
1970
Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7??. +4.0%
1971
Baltimore 16 Dallas 13???? +14.3%
1972
Dallas 24 Miami 3?????... +19.0%
1973
Miami 14 Washington 7???.. -14.7%
1974
Miami 24 Minnesota 7???.... -26.5%
1975
Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6??.. +37.2%
1976
Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17???.. +23.8%
1977
Oakland 32 Minnesota 14??? -7.2%
1978
Dallas 27 Denver 10????? +6.6%
1979
Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31???? +18.4%
1980
Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19??. +32.4%
1981
Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10??. -4.9%
1982
San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21? +21.4%
1983
Washington 27 Miami 17???. +22.5%
1984
L.A. Raiders 38 Washington 9?. +6.3%
1985
San Francisco 38 Miami 16??.. +32.2%
1986
Chicago 46 New England 10?.... +18.5%
1987
N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20???. +5.2%
1988
Washington 42 Denver 10??? +16.8%
1989
San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16? +31.5%
1990
San Francisco 55 Denver 10??. -3.2%
1991
N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19??? +30.6%
1992
Washington 37 Buffalo 24??? +7.7%
1993
Dallas 52 Buffalo 17????? +10.0%
1994
Dallas 30 Buffalo 13?????. +1.3%
1995
San Francisco 49 San Diego 26? +37.4%
1996
Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17???? +23.1%
1997
Green Bay 35 New England 21? +33.4%
1998
Denver 31 Green Bay 24???.. +28.6%
1999
Denver 34 Atlanta 19????... +21.0%
2000
St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16??? -9.1%
2001
Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7??. -11.9%
2002
New England 20 St. Louis 17?.. -22.1%
2003
Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21??.. +28.7%
And
now?your "exclusive" conclusions from the editor,
new for 2004.
Playing
off the popular "over / under" bets that many find
so compelling, check this out.
In
each of the 9 years that the S&P 500 finished down,
the loser of the Super Bowl scored fewer than 20 points
(17 or less, specifically), while in each of the 8
years in which the loser scored more than 20 points,
the market finished up.
So,
this is where investors should be focusing. Loser
over 20, market is guaranteed to rise?ahem. Loser
under 20, odds are 31% the market will finish lower.
[9 down years in the 29 in which the loser scored
less than 20.]
Of
course this is all ridiculous, but it's the one time
a year I have the opportunity to be so.
And
remember, as always, bet with your head?not over it.
Sources:
Ibbotson Associates
Brian
Trumbore
The
securities markets are subject to the risks of fluctuating
prices and the uncertainty of rates of return and
yields inherent in investing and past performance
is no guarantee of future results.
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