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Stocks:
The Year After
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Equity returns in post-election years;
as measured by the S&P 500, the Ibbotson small cap
index (S/C, as defined below) and the Nasdaq (since
it's inception in 1971).
?????..S&P??S/C??..N?
2001
(R) ?..-11.9?..+22.8??-21.1
1997
(D) ?..+33.4?..+22.8?..+21.6
1993
(D) ?..+10.0?..+21.0?..+14.7
1989
(R) ?..+31.5?..+10.2?..+19.3
1985
(R) ?..+32.2?..+24.7?..+31.4
1981
(R) ??-4.9?..+13.9??-3.2
1977
(D) ??-7.2?..+25.4??+7.3
1973
(R) ?..-14.7?..-30.9??-31.1
1969
(R) ??-8.5?..-25.1
1965
(D) ?..+12.5?.+41.8
1961
(D) ?..+26.9?.+32.1
1957
(R) ?..-10.8?..-14.6
1953
(R) ??-1.0??.-6.5
1949
(D) ?..+18.8?..+19.8
1945
(D) ?..+36.4?..+73.6
1941
(D) ?..-11.6??.-9.0
1937
(D) ?..-35.0?..-58.0
1933
(D) ?..+54.0?+142.9
1929
(R) ??-8.4?..-51.4
Notes:
--In
calculating small cap returns, Ibbotson Associates
has employed various indices since 1926; namely the
fifth capitalization quintile of stocks on the New
York Stock Exchange for 1926-81, Dimensional Fund
Advisors' Small Company Fund, 1982-2001, and, since
April 2001, the DFA Micro Cap Fund.
--The
small cap return figures for 1997 and 2001 were indeed
exactly the same, +22.8.
But
concerning 2001, yes, the small cap return for this
year may seem strange when weighed against the performance
of large caps, as represented by the S&P and Nasdaq.
Remember the environment back then?the big names that
had all the volume in 1998-2000 were being sold with
a vengeance. The smaller stocks, such as defined above,
obviously held up better.
Nonetheless,
I went through the numbers with a fine-tooth comb
to convince myself.
For
example, here are the returns for just two months
in 2001.
January?S/C
+13.8?S&P +3.6?Nasdaq +12.2
May??.S/C +9.6?.S&P +0.7?Nasdaq -0.3
[Using
one other month, 2/01, the Nasdaq was off 22.4% while
the Ibbotson small cap index was off 7%]
--One
other note, the 142.9% return figure for small caps
in 1933 is not a typo.
Sources:
Ibbotson
Associates 2004 Yearbook
Stock Trader's Almanac / 2005
Brian
Trumbore
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