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2003
and More
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
As part of the effort to wrap up 2003,
while adding data to past archives, I present the
following.
---
Dow
Jones Industrial Average
9/3/29?
381.17
7/8/32? 41.22 (all-time low)
11/23/54?382.74 ??yes, it took a few years to get
back to the '29 mark. Personally, I would equate this
action to that of the Nasdaq today and the Crash of
2000-2002. How long will it take to get back to the
old high?
All-time
market highs
Dow
Jones?1/14/00?11722
S&P 500?3/24/00?1527
Nasdaq?3/10/00?5048 [Inception was 1971]
12/31/99
Dow
Jones?11497
S&P 500?1469
Nasdaq?4069
12/31/03
Dow
Jones?10453
S&P 500?1111
Nasdaq?2003
S&P
500 (Total Return?including dividends)
1995?+37.4
1996?+23.1
1997?+33.4
1998?+28.6
1999?+21.0
2000?-9.1
2001?-11.9
2002?-22.1
2003?+28.7
Nasdaq
1995?+39.9
1996?+22.7
1997?+21.6
1998?+39.6
1999?+85.6
2000?-39.3
2001?-21.1
2002?-31.5
2003?+50.0
*The
above for Nasdaq is really incredible. 9 straight
years of 20% + or - volatility. In my "Week in Review"
column I said the Nasdaq would finish down 12% in
2004. I wish I had looked at this before I wrote that.
It would certainly be a departure from the past.
Interest
Rates?U.S. Treasury Yields
Date??.2-year?.10-year
12/31/99?6.24??.6.43
6/13/03?..1.01??.3.10?historic
lows in yield
12/31/03?1.82??.4.25
Gold
12/96?$368
12/97?$289
12/98?$288
12/99?$289
12/00?$272
12/01?$279
12/02?$347
12/03?$416
Oil
(Light Sweet Crude)
12/99?$25.20
12/00?$26.80
12/01?$19.84
12/02?$31.20
12/03?$32.52
Terrorism
9/21/01?bottom
after 9/11
Dow
Jones?8235
S&P 500?965
Nasdaq?1423
And
I present the following key market bottoms, gleaned
from my own data, as a comparison between the lows
of the first Gulf War and Gulf War II.
10/11/90?in
the midst of the buildup.
Dow
Jones?2365?trailing p/e 11.6, div. yield 4.2%
S&P 500?295?trailing p/e 14.1
Nasdaq?325
Bull
/ Bear readings: 32.2% / 53.7% [Source: Investors
Intelligence?a contrarian indicator]
10/9/02?in
the midst of the buildup (again)
Dow
Jones?7286?trailing p/e 20.5, div. yield 2.4%
S&P 500?776?trailing p/e 31.3
Nasdaq?1114
Bull
/ Bear readings: 31.0 / 39.1?interesting?another good
contrarian call.
*The
difference in these two market bottoms in terms of
valuation is striking. Granted, in '90 we were about
to enter a recession, while in '02 we were emerging
from a mild one, but if you wanted to weigh all the
evidence before making a market forecast, you'd have
to add this into the equation.
---
The
above was gleaned from both Ibbotson Associates and
my own data, which I have painstakingly kept on parchment
since March 1990. Seriously. Steal my briefcase and
you steal my soul.
Brian
Trumbore
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