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Update:
Presidential Elections and Returns
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
I thought I would update a piece I
did six months ago, 6/13, concerning market returns
for the year before a presidential election and election
year itself. Historically, the numbers have painted
a powerful picture and 2003 has been no exception
to the pattern.
Of
course the biggest reason for the positive bias is
the fact that Congress and the administration are
typically priming the fiscal pumps to ensure that
all of us feel good when we enter the voting booth.
Most eras, "It's about the economy, stupid," has a
truthful ring to it.
I'll
save my own forecast for 2004 for a future "Week in
Review." For now, hopefully you have participated
in the strong market in '03. I was far too conservative
myself.
Year?..S&P
500?..Small Caps
2004????....................?.......
2003?...+20.4*??.+51.6%*
2000??-9.1%..........-3.6%
1999?...+21.1%.......+29.8%
1996?...+23.1%.......+17.6%
1995?...+37.4%.......+34.5%
1992??+7.7%........+23.4%
1991?...+30.6%.......+44.6%
1988?...+16.8%.......+22.9%
1987??+5.2%.........-9.3%
1984??+6.3%.........-6.7%
1983?...+22.5%.......+39.7%
1980?...+32.4%.......+39.9%
1979?...+18.4%.......+43.5%
1976??+23.8%......+57.4%
1975??+37.2%......+52.8%
1972??+19.0%......+4.4%
1971??+14.3%......+16.5%
1968??+11.1%......+36.0%
1967??+24.0%......+83.6%
1964??+16.5%......+23.5%
1963??+22.8%......+23.6%
1960??..+0.5??..-3.3%
1959??+12.0%......+16.4%
1956??.+6.6%........+4.3%
1955??+31.6%.....+20.4%
1952??+18.4%......+3.0%
1951??+24.0%......+7.8%
1948??+5.5%........-2.1%
1947??+5.7%........+0.9%
1944?...+19.8%......+53.7%
1943?...+25.9%......+88.4%
1940?....-9.8%.........-5.2%
1939??-0.4%........+0.4%
1936??+33.9%.....+64.8%
1935??+47.7%.....+40.2%
*Returns
as of December 10. Small cap return represented by
DFA Micro Cap Fund. Russell 2000 is up +38.0%, year-to-date,
thru 12/10.
[Source:
Ibbotson Associates / 2003 Yearbook]
Ibbotson
has employed various indices in calculating small
cap returns since 1926, namely the fifth capitalization
quintile of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange
for 1926-81, Dimensional Fund Advisors' Small Company
Fund, 1982-2001, and, since April 2001, the DFA Micro
Cap Fund.
Wall
Street History will return 12/19?the story of Tino
De Angelis.
Brian
Trumbore
BUYandHOLD
does not recommend any securities. The securities
mentioned above are being used for illustrative purposes
only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell
or as a solicitation of an offer to buy.
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