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Miscellaneous
Data
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
I thought I'd throw out some statistics
that may be of interest to more than a few of you
market junkies. Next week I'll start a piece on the
Wright brothers.
September
/ October
While
September is historically the worst month in terms
of market performance, October is known for its own
debacles as well as the establishment of key market
bottoms. Following are the closing figures from my
own sources unless otherwise indicated, for the S&P
500 for the past few years, incorporating both 'up'
and 'down' periods.
1997
8/28?..899
10/31?914
1998
8/31?..957
10/30...1098
1999
8/31?.1320
10/29...1366
2000
8/31?.1517
10/31...1429
2001
8/31.?1133
10/31...1059
2002
8/30?..916
10/31?885
2003
8/29?.1008
10/31?..?..
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Key
Market Dates and Index Figures
Following
are the levels for the Dow Jones, Tokyo Nikkei, London
FT-SE, and Frankfurt DAX at various market tops in
2000, as well as the October 2002 lows.
1/14/00?Dow
Jones hits its all-time high of 11722.
DJ
- 11722?Nikkei - 18956?FT-SE - 6658?DAX - 7173
3/10/00?Nasdaq
closes at all-time high of 5048. There was a huge
divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq at this point,
with the Dow down 13.6% year to date, while Nasdaq
was up 24.1%. Historic.
DJ
- 9928?Nikkei - 19750?FT-SE - 6568?DAX - 7975 3/24/00?S&P
500 hits its all-time high of 1527. DJ - 11112?Nikkei
- 19958?FT-SE - 6738?DAX - 7932
9/1/00?Folks
forget that the markets recovered in a big way following
the spring's "issues." In my way of thinking, this
is the real 'top,' and we've obviously just passed
the 3-year anniversary. Aside from the Dow Jones closing
at 11238, the S&P 500 was at 1520 (just 7 points from
its peak) and Nasdaq had rebounded to 4234.
DJ
- 11238?Nikkei - 16739?FT-SE - 6795?DAX - 7344
**Interestingly,
all four of the above key market dates were Fridays.
10/4/02?I
only have weekly closing figures on the foreign indices,
but on 10/9 the Dow and S&P bottomed at 7286 and 776,
respectively.
DJ
- 7528?Nikkei - 9027?FT-SE - 3813?DAX - 2714
8/29/03?the
comeback. S&P 1008, Nasdaq 1810.
DJ
- 9415?Nikkei - 10343?FT-SE - 4161?DAX - 3484
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Steel
Some
of you know I have been keeping the production figures
for steel (as found weekly in Barron's) since March
1990. They're literally handwritten on spreadsheets
(along with other market minutiae).
While
steel is but one of many key indicators of economic
strength, at worst it can help confirm trends. And
so it is that I am struck by the numbers for the recent
period, which are trending down even as the overall
economy is improving.
Forget
the gross #'s (000's tons), because they are subject
to many different factors, such as trade issues. It's
the trend that is sometimes important.
July
/ August 1997
2043?2080?2056?2046?1983?1922?2029?2027?2171
July
/ August 1998
1888?1968?2010?1962?2013?2066?2061?2120?2127
July
/ August 1999
1971?1986?1900?1948?1982?1885?2014?2009?1995
July
/ August 2000
2243?2242?2125?2097?2168?2149?2015?2068?2067
July
/ August 2001
1853?1853?1784?1917?1851?1885?1833?1871?1817
July
/ August 2002
1922?1920?1918?1928?2126?1988?2014?1944?2010
July
/ August 2003
1899?1880?1998?1948?1903?1887?1823?1786?1723
So,
again, I don't know if the above data for 2003 truly
means anything, and the recent and projected numbers
for GDP would certainly argue that it doesn't, but
it's been filed away in the brain, along with bull
/ bear sentiment readings, P/E ratios and interest
rates.
Wall
Street History returns September 12.
Brian
Trumbore
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