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Just
the Facts
Brian
Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
I thought we'd take a break for a while
from the historical essays and look at some numbers,
especially since I just shelled out big bucks for
the 2003 Ibbotson Associates, from which all of the
following is culled.
For
the period 1926-2002, Annual Total Returns
[Geometric mean]
| Large
Company Stocks (S&P 500) |
10.2%
|
| Small
Company Stocks |
12.1%
|
| Long-Term
Corporate Bonds |
5.9%
|
| Long-Term
Government Bonds |
5.5%
|
| Intermediate-Term
Govt. Bonds |
5.4% |
| U.S.
Treasury Bills |
3.8% |
| Inflation |
3.1%
|
Notes:
Small
Co. stocks have been measured using various indices
over the years, including most recently the Dimensional
Fund Advisors Micro Cap Fund.
Long-Term
Corporates: measured by the Salomon Brothers Long-Term
High-Grade Corporate Bond Index.
Long-Term
Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting of the
20-year Treasury.
Intermediate-Term
Governments: a one-bond portfolio consisting of the
5-year Treasury.
U.S.
Treasury Bills: a one-bill portfolio of 30 days.
Inflation
is measured by the Consumer Price Index.
---
Compound
Annual Rates of Return by Decade
| |
60s |
70s |
80s |
90s |
00s |
93-02 |
| Large
Caps |
7.8 |
5.9 |
17.5 |
18.2 |
-14.6 |
9.3*
|
| Small
Caps |
15.5 |
11.5 |
15.8 |
15.1 |
0.9 |
11.6 |
| Inter.
Govts |
3.5 |
7.0 |
11.9 |
7.2 |
11.0 |
7.3 |
| T-Bills |
3.9 |
6.3 |
8.9 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
4.4 |
| Inflation |
2.5 |
7.4 |
5.1 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.5
|
*Returns
on the S&P 500 for the period 1993-2002
| 1993 |
10.0
|
| 1994 |
1.3
|
| 1995 |
37.4 |
| 1996 |
23.1 |
| 1997 |
33.4
|
| 1998 |
28.6 |
| 1999 |
21.0 |
| 2000 |
-9.1
|
| 2001 |
-11.9 |
| 2002 |
-22.1 |
Tidbits
--The
last time the CPI was over 3.4% for a single year
was 1990. [1987-1990?4.4%-6.1% each year.]
--Ah,
the importance of dividends in the old days, like
1975-85, when dividends on the S&P 500 contributed
4.3%-5.7%, annually, of the total return on the index.
More
next week, including some figures on Growth vs. Value.
Brian
Trumbore
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