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Bulls , Bears and the Dow
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com

Today is as good a time as any to update some information I have previously provided in this space, and which I list weekly in my "Week in Review" as well.

The "Investors Intelligence" reading is the result of a survey of over 100 financial newsletter writers that is taken weekly by Michael Burke and his group. Historically, it has been one of many devices that strategists use to gauge market sentiment and it is often viewed as a contrarian indicator, i.e., a high bullish reading may mean rough sledding ahead (an excess of optimism), while a high number of bears may signal that we are near a market bottom (too much pessimism...everyone who wanted to sell already has).

The survey is released on Wednesday and represents the accumulation of data from the prior 7-day period. For the purposes of this table, I have listed the figures as you would see them in Barron's the following Saturday along with the closing price for the Dow Jones that particular week. Thus, if you wanted to be more exact about the data, you should really match up the bull / bear readings against the prior week's Dow figure to gauge the true background for the data.

In the old days, this reading was of more value than it probably is today. When the number of bulls or bears was above 60% or below 20%, it was worth noting. Yet seldom have we seen readings of 60% or higher the past few years. A recent exception was the high bullish figure for February 2001, which proved to be the solid contrarian indicator one would expect from a reading such as that with the market proceeding to drop significantly thereafter. Since then the bullish reading has declined, as you would also expect.

---Brian Trumbore



Date Bulls Bears Dow
1/18/02 51.6 24.7 9771
1/11/02 52.6 22.7 9987
1/4/02 49.0 27.5 10259
12/28/01 48.4 27.3 10136
12/21/01 46.0 28.0 10035
12/14/01 43.4 28.3 9811
12/7/01 45.4 30.9 10049
11/30/01 46.0 27.0 9851
11/23/01 46.9 28.6 9959
11/16/01 44.0 30.3 9866
11/9/01 41.7 33.3 9608
11/2/01 43.2 33.7 9323
10/26/01 43.0 32.0 9545
10/19/01 40.2 34.3 9204
10/12/01 39.2 34.0 9344
10/5/01 34.4 42.7 9119
9/28/01 33.7 42.1 8847
9/21/01 35.7 37.6 8235
9/14/01 39.6 36.5 9605
9/7/01 44.3 30.9 9605
8/31/01 43.9 30.6 9949
8/24/01 46.9 30.2 10423
8/17/01 49.0 29.1 10240
8/10/01 46.0 27.0 10416
8/3/01 46.4 27.8 10512
7/27/01 52.6 23.7 10416
7/20/01 52.5 23.2 10576
7/13/01 51.0 25.0 10539
7/6/01 50.0 25.5 10252
6/29/01 48.0 30.0 10502
6/22/01 51.0 30.6 10604
6/15/01 49.0 29.6 10623
6/8/01 48.5 30.5 10977
6/1/01 47.4 34.0 10990
5/25/01 47.9 35.4 11005
5/18/01 50.0 35.4 11301
5/11/01 47.9 37.2 10821
5/4/01 45.7 40.2 10951
4/27/01 43.9 41.8 10810
4/20/01 44.7 42.5 10579
4/13/01 44.5 37.0 10126
4/6/01 48.9 38.3 9791
3/30/01 48.9 38.0 9878
3/23/01 51.6 30.9 9504
3/16/01 50.5 32.3 9823
3/9/01 53.6 34.0 10644
3/2/01 57.4 30.9 10466
2/23/01 61.2 28.6 10441
2/16/01 57.8 30.4 10799
2/9/01 61.8 30.4 10781
2/2/01 61.0 30.0 10864
1/26/01 56.8 32.4 10659
1/19/01 57.0 32.0 10587
1/12/01 56.7 32.7 10525
1/5/01 52.9 35.6 10662
12/29/00 51.4 36.2 10786
12/22/00 54.1 30.3 10635
12/15/00 55.6 25.9 10434
12/8/00 54.6 30.6 10712
12/1/00 55.1 29.0 10373
11/24/00 55.0 28.5 10470
11/17/00 50.9 30.6 10629
11/10/00 48.2 29.6 10602
11/3/00 48.6 30.3 10817
10/27/00 43.4 32.1 10590
10/20/00 46.8 28.4 10226
10/13/00 47.6 32.0 10193
10/6/00 46.7 30.9 10596
9/29/00 51.4 28.0 10650
9/22/00 49.5 31.1 10647
9/15/00 50.0 31.7 10927
9/8/00 47.7 31.8 11221
9/1/00 47.1 33.7 11238
8/25/00 43.5 33.7 11192
8/18/00 47.1 33.7 11046
8/11/00 48.6 33.6 11027
8/4/00 52.3 30.6 10767
7/28/00 54.2 30.8 10517
7/21/00 50.9 31.8 10733
7/14/00 49.5 30.9 10812
7/7/00 51.4 32.7 10635
6/30/00 50.0 32.4 10447
6/23/00 50.0 33.3 10404
6/16/00 49.1 33.6 10449
6/9/00 48.1 34.3 10614
6/2/00 46.3 34.3 10799
5/26/00 46.0 32.4 10299
5/19/00 49.1 33.6 10626
5/12/00 48.6 31.2 10609
5/5/00 47.6 31.4 10577
4/28/00 50.5 29.3 10733
4/21/00 54.9 28.3 10844
4/14/00 56.9 26.7 10305
4/7/00 54.9 29.2 11111
3/31/00 54.1 29.2 10921
3/24/00 55.7 26.4 11112
3/17/00 52.3 29.0 10595
3/10/00 53.4 27.6 9829
3/3/00 52.2 28.3 10367
2/25/00 51.8 28.6 9862
2/18/00 53.7 26.9 10219
2/11/00 53.2 27.9 10425
2/4/00 52.3 29.7 10963
1/28/00 55.9 26.1 10738
1/21/00 54.0 26.5 11251
1/14/00 54.5 26.4 11722
1/7/00 52.2 28.3 11522
12/31/99 55.0 27.0 11497
12/24/99 53.2 29.4 11405
12/17/99 52.7 29.1 11257
12/10/99 51.7 29.3 11224
12/3/99 53.0 28.7 11286
11/26/99 52.1 29.1 10988
11/19/99 50.4 30.1 11003
11/12/99 44.4 35.9 10769
11/5/99 42.1 38.6 10704
10/29/99 41.1 38.4 10729
10/22/99 41.0 38.5 10470
10/15/99 39.2 37.5 10019
10/8/99 41.0 36.8 10649
10/1/99 42.9 32.8 10273
9/24/99 42.9 30.4 10279
9/17/99 41.5 31.4 10803
9/10/99 44.1 30.5 11028
9/3/99 42.9 31.9 11078
8/27/99 44.5 31.1 11090
8/20/99 45.8 31.3 11100
8/13/99 50.0 29.3 10973
8/6/99 52.2 27.8 10714
7/30/99 53.6 24.6 10655
7/23/99 54.1 27.9 10921
7/16/99 55.2 26.7 11209
7/9/99 52.6 27.2 11193
6/25/99 57.5 26.5 10552
6/18/99 58.8 26.3 10855
6/11/99 58.3 28.7 10490
6/4/99 61.6 27.7 10799
5/28/99 60.7 28.6 10559
5/21/99 60.9 28.7 10829
5/14/99 56.9 31.0 10913
5/7/99 58.6 27.6 11031
4/30/99 56.1 30.7 10789
4/23/99 56.4 30.4 10689
4/16/99 55.9 30.5 10493
4/9/99 56.4 31.6 10173
4/2/99 55.6 31.6 9832
3/26/99 55.9 29.7 9822
3/19/99 52.6 29.8 9903
3/12/99 49.1 32.5 9876
3/5/99 50.9 32.1 9736
2/26/99 54.1 31.5 9307
2/19/99 55.7 28.7 9339
2/12/99 61.2 25.9 9274
2/5/99 60.0 26.7 9309
1/29/99 60.7 28.2 9358
1/22/99 60.3 28.9 9120
1/15/99 60.0 30.0 9341
1/8/99 58.0 30.0 9643
1/1/99 57.1 30.3 9183
12/25/98 56.4 32.5 9217
12/18/98 56.8 31.4 8903
12/11/98 57.4 31.3 8821
12/4/98 56.9 31.0 9016
11/27/98 57.9 29.8 9333
11/20/98 57.0 31.6 9159
11/13/98 53.1 35.4 8920
11/6/98 47.8 38.3 8975
10/30/98 45.3 39.3 8592
10/23/98 44.0 39.7 8452
10/16/98 41.0 41.9 8416
10/9/98 38.5 42.7 7899
10/2/98 37.6 44.4 7784
9/25/98 36.2 45.7 8028
9/18/98 36.4 47.5 7895
9/11/98 37.3 46.6 7795
9/4/98 40.7 43.2 7640
8/28/98 40.4 38.6 8051
8/21/98 40.7 34.5 8533
8/14/98 43.4 31.9 8425
8/7/98 50.0 27.6 8598
7/31/98 52.2 26.3 8883
7/24/98 54.3 23.3 8937
7/17/98 52.0 24.0 9337
7/10/98 41.7 31.7 9105
7/3/98 44.9 31.4 9025
6/26/98 42.9 31.9 8944
6/19/98 42.1 33.3 8712
6/12/98 41.7 31.7 8834
6/5/98 42.8 28.6 9037
5/29/98 44.8 27.6 8899
5/22/98 47.5 25.0 9114
5/15/98 45.5 25.2 9096
5/8/98 47.5 24.6 9055
5/1/98 53.8 23.5 9147
4/24/98 54.6 23.1 9064
4/17/98 52.8 23.6 9167
4/10/98 52.4 24.2 8994
4/3/98 53.2 22.6 8983
3/27/98 49.6 26.4 8796
3/20/98 48.0 27.6 8906
3/13/98 48.8 27.6 8602
3/6/98 48.8 27.2 8569
2/27/98 46.0 28.2 8545
2/20/98 45.9 30.3 8413
2/13/98 43.7 32.5 8370
2/6/98 41.6 35.2 8189
1/30/98 43.5 36.3 7906
1/23/98 44.3 35.5 7700
1/16/98 46.3 35.0 7753
1/9/98 45.9 36.9 7580
1/2/98 47.6 35.2 7965
12/26/97 50.8 31.5 7679
12/19/97 52.5 30.8 7756
12/12/97 51.2 32.5 7838
12/5/97 47.1 34.7 8149
11/28/97 44.7 36.6 7823
11/21/97 45.1 37.7 7881
11/14/97 42.7 38.7 7572
11/7/97 44.3 34.7 7581
10/31/97 46.7 31.7 7442
10/24/97 46.4 31.4 7715
10/17/97 48.8 29.7 7847
10/10/97 47.5 30.7 8045
10/3/97 43.1 32.5 8038
9/26/97 41.5 34.1 7922
9/19/97 39.0 35.8 7917
9/12/97 37.6 34.4 7742
9/5/97 33.9 32.2 7822
8/29/97 32.2 33.1