Bulls , Bears and the Dow
Brian Trumbore
President/Editor, StocksandNews.com
Today is as good a time as any to update some information I have previously provided in this space, and which I list weekly in my "Week in Review" as well.
The "Investors Intelligence" reading is the result of a survey of over 100 financial newsletter writers that is taken weekly by Michael Burke and his group. Historically, it has been one of many devices that strategists use to gauge market sentiment and it is often viewed as a contrarian indicator, i.e., a high bullish reading may mean rough sledding ahead (an excess of optimism), while a high number of bears may signal that we are near a market bottom (too much pessimism...everyone who wanted to sell already has).
The survey is released on Wednesday and represents the accumulation of data from the prior 7-day period. For the purposes of this table, I have listed the figures as you would see them in Barron's the following Saturday along with the closing price for the Dow Jones that particular week. Thus, if you wanted to be more exact about the data, you should really match up the bull / bear readings against the prior week's Dow figure to gauge the true background for the data.
In the old days, this reading was of more value than it probably is today. When the number of bulls or bears was above 60% or below 20%, it was worth noting. Yet seldom have we seen readings of 60% or higher the past few years. A recent exception was the high bullish figure for February 2001, which proved to be the solid contrarian indicator one would expect from a reading such as that with the market proceeding to drop significantly thereafter. Since then the bullish reading has declined, as you would also expect.
---Brian Trumbore
| Date |
Bulls |
Bears |
Dow |
| 1/18/02 |
51.6 |
24.7 |
9771 |
| 1/11/02 |
52.6 |
22.7 |
9987
|
| 1/4/02 |
49.0 |
27.5 |
10259 |
| 12/28/01 |
48.4 |
27.3 |
10136 |
| 12/21/01 |
46.0 |
28.0 |
10035 |
| 12/14/01 |
43.4 |
28.3 |
9811 |
| 12/7/01 |
45.4 |
30.9 |
10049 |
| 11/30/01 |
46.0 |
27.0 |
9851 |
| 11/23/01 |
46.9 |
28.6 |
9959 |
| 11/16/01 |
44.0 |
30.3 |
9866 |
| 11/9/01 |
41.7 |
33.3 |
9608 |
| 11/2/01 |
43.2 |
33.7 |
9323 |
| 10/26/01 |
43.0 |
32.0 |
9545 |
| 10/19/01 |
40.2 |
34.3 |
9204 |
| 10/12/01 |
39.2 |
34.0 |
9344 |
| 10/5/01 |
34.4 |
42.7 |
9119 |
| 9/28/01 |
33.7 |
42.1 |
8847 |
| 9/21/01 |
35.7 |
37.6 |
8235 |
| 9/14/01 |
39.6 |
36.5 |
9605 |
| 9/7/01 |
44.3 |
30.9 |
9605 |
| 8/31/01 |
43.9 |
30.6 |
9949 |
| 8/24/01 |
46.9 |
30.2 |
10423 |
| 8/17/01 |
49.0 |
29.1 |
10240 |
| 8/10/01 |
46.0 |
27.0 |
10416 |
| 8/3/01 |
46.4 |
27.8 |
10512 |
| 7/27/01 |
52.6 |
23.7 |
10416 |
| 7/20/01 |
52.5 |
23.2 |
10576 |
| 7/13/01 |
51.0 |
25.0 |
10539 |
| 7/6/01 |
50.0 |
25.5 |
10252 |
| 6/29/01 |
48.0 |
30.0 |
10502 |
| 6/22/01 |
51.0 |
30.6 |
10604 |
| 6/15/01 |
49.0 |
29.6 |
10623 |
| 6/8/01 |
48.5 |
30.5 |
10977 |
| 6/1/01 |
47.4 |
34.0 |
10990 |
| 5/25/01 |
47.9 |
35.4 |
11005 |
| 5/18/01 |
50.0 |
35.4 |
11301 |
| 5/11/01 |
47.9 |
37.2 |
10821 |
| 5/4/01 |
45.7 |
40.2 |
10951 |
| 4/27/01 |
43.9 |
41.8 |
10810 |
| 4/20/01 |
44.7 |
42.5 |
10579 |
| 4/13/01 |
44.5 |
37.0 |
10126 |
| 4/6/01 |
48.9 |
38.3 |
9791 |
| 3/30/01 |
48.9 |
38.0 |
9878 |
| 3/23/01 |
51.6 |
30.9 |
9504 |
| 3/16/01 |
50.5 |
32.3 |
9823 |
| 3/9/01 |
53.6 |
34.0 |
10644 |
| 3/2/01 |
57.4 |
30.9 |
10466 |
| 2/23/01 |
61.2 |
28.6 |
10441 |
| 2/16/01 |
57.8 |
30.4 |
10799 |
| 2/9/01 |
61.8 |
30.4 |
10781 |
| 2/2/01 |
61.0 |
30.0 |
10864 |
| 1/26/01 |
56.8 |
32.4 |
10659 |
| 1/19/01 |
57.0 |
32.0 |
10587 |
| 1/12/01 |
56.7 |
32.7 |
10525 |
| 1/5/01 |
52.9 |
35.6 |
10662 |
| 12/29/00 |
51.4 |
36.2 |
10786 |
| 12/22/00 |
54.1 |
30.3 |
10635 |
| 12/15/00 |
55.6 |
25.9 |
10434 |
| 12/8/00 |
54.6 |
30.6 |
10712 |
| 12/1/00 |
55.1 |
29.0 |
10373 |
| 11/24/00 |
55.0 |
28.5 |
10470 |
| 11/17/00 |
50.9 |
30.6 |
10629 |
| 11/10/00 |
48.2 |
29.6 |
10602 |
| 11/3/00 |
48.6 |
30.3 |
10817 |
| 10/27/00 |
43.4 |
32.1 |
10590 |
| 10/20/00 |
46.8 |
28.4 |
10226 |
| 10/13/00 |
47.6 |
32.0 |
10193 |
| 10/6/00 |
46.7 |
30.9 |
10596 |
| 9/29/00 |
51.4 |
28.0 |
10650 |
| 9/22/00 |
49.5 |
31.1 |
10647 |
| 9/15/00 |
50.0 |
31.7 |
10927 |
| 9/8/00 |
47.7 |
31.8 |
11221 |
| 9/1/00 |
47.1 |
33.7 |
11238 |
| 8/25/00 |
43.5 |
33.7 |
11192 |
| 8/18/00 |
47.1 |
33.7 |
11046 |
| 8/11/00 |
48.6 |
33.6 |
11027 |
| 8/4/00 |
52.3 |
30.6 |
10767 |
| 7/28/00 |
54.2 |
30.8 |
10517 |
| 7/21/00 |
50.9 |
31.8 |
10733 |
| 7/14/00 |
49.5 |
30.9 |
10812 |
| 7/7/00 |
51.4 |
32.7 |
10635 |
| 6/30/00 |
50.0 |
32.4 |
10447 |
| 6/23/00 |
50.0 |
33.3 |
10404 |
| 6/16/00 |
49.1 |
33.6 |
10449 |
| 6/9/00 |
48.1 |
34.3 |
10614 |
| 6/2/00 |
46.3 |
34.3 |
10799 |
| 5/26/00 |
46.0 |
32.4 |
10299 |
| 5/19/00 |
49.1 |
33.6 |
10626 |
| 5/12/00 |
48.6 |
31.2 |
10609 |
| 5/5/00 |
47.6 |
31.4 |
10577 |
| 4/28/00 |
50.5 |
29.3 |
10733 |
| 4/21/00 |
54.9 |
28.3 |
10844 |
| 4/14/00 |
56.9 |
26.7 |
10305 |
| 4/7/00 |
54.9 |
29.2 |
11111 |
| 3/31/00 |
54.1 |
29.2 |
10921 |
| 3/24/00 |
55.7 |
26.4 |
11112 |
| 3/17/00 |
52.3 |
29.0 |
10595 |
| 3/10/00 |
53.4 |
27.6 |
9829 |
| 3/3/00 |
52.2 |
28.3 |
10367 |
| 2/25/00 |
51.8 |
28.6 |
9862 |
| 2/18/00 |
53.7 |
26.9 |
10219 |
| 2/11/00 |
53.2 |
27.9 |
10425 |
| 2/4/00 |
52.3 |
29.7 |
10963 |
| 1/28/00 |
55.9 |
26.1 |
10738 |
| 1/21/00 |
54.0 |
26.5 |
11251 |
| 1/14/00 |
54.5 |
26.4 |
11722 |
| 1/7/00 |
52.2 |
28.3 |
11522 |
| 12/31/99 |
55.0 |
27.0 |
11497 |
| 12/24/99 |
53.2 |
29.4 |
11405 |
| 12/17/99 |
52.7 |
29.1 |
11257 |
| 12/10/99 |
51.7 |
29.3 |
11224 |
| 12/3/99 |
53.0 |
28.7 |
11286 |
| 11/26/99 |
52.1 |
29.1 |
10988 |
| 11/19/99 |
50.4 |
30.1 |
11003 |
| 11/12/99 |
44.4 |
35.9 |
10769 |
| 11/5/99 |
42.1 |
38.6 |
10704 |
| 10/29/99 |
41.1 |
38.4 |
10729 |
| 10/22/99 |
41.0 |
38.5 |
10470 |
| 10/15/99 |
39.2 |
37.5 |
10019 |
| 10/8/99 |
41.0 |
36.8 |
10649 |
| 10/1/99 |
42.9 |
32.8 |
10273 |
| 9/24/99 |
42.9 |
30.4 |
10279 |
| 9/17/99 |
41.5 |
31.4 |
10803 |
| 9/10/99 |
44.1 |
30.5 |
11028 |
| 9/3/99 |
42.9 |
31.9 |
11078 |
| 8/27/99 |
44.5 |
31.1 |
11090 |
| 8/20/99 |
45.8 |
31.3 |
11100 |
| 8/13/99 |
50.0 |
29.3 |
10973 |
| 8/6/99 |
52.2 |
27.8 |
10714 |
| 7/30/99 |
53.6 |
24.6 |
10655 |
| 7/23/99 |
54.1 |
27.9 |
10921 |
| 7/16/99 |
55.2 |
26.7 |
11209 |
| 7/9/99 |
52.6 |
27.2 |
11193 |
| 6/25/99 |
57.5 |
26.5 |
10552 |
| 6/18/99 |
58.8 |
26.3 |
10855 |
| 6/11/99 |
58.3 |
28.7 |
10490 |
| 6/4/99 |
61.6 |
27.7 |
10799 |
| 5/28/99 |
60.7 |
28.6 |
10559 |
| 5/21/99 |
60.9 |
28.7 |
10829 |
| 5/14/99 |
56.9 |
31.0 |
10913 |
| 5/7/99 |
58.6 |
27.6 |
11031 |
| 4/30/99 |
56.1 |
30.7 |
10789 |
| 4/23/99 |
56.4 |
30.4 |
10689 |
| 4/16/99 |
55.9 |
30.5 |
10493 |
| 4/9/99 |
56.4 |
31.6 |
10173 |
| 4/2/99 |
55.6 |
31.6 |
9832 |
| 3/26/99 |
55.9 |
29.7 |
9822 |
| 3/19/99 |
52.6 |
29.8 |
9903 |
| 3/12/99 |
49.1 |
32.5 |
9876 |
| 3/5/99 |
50.9 |
32.1 |
9736 |
| 2/26/99 |
54.1 |
31.5 |
9307 |
| 2/19/99 |
55.7 |
28.7 |
9339 |
| 2/12/99 |
61.2 |
25.9 |
9274 |
| 2/5/99 |
60.0 |
26.7 |
9309 |
| 1/29/99 |
60.7 |
28.2 |
9358 |
| 1/22/99 |
60.3 |
28.9 |
9120 |
| 1/15/99 |
60.0 |
30.0 |
9341 |
| 1/8/99 |
58.0 |
30.0 |
9643 |
| 1/1/99 |
57.1 |
30.3 |
9183 |
| 12/25/98 |
56.4 |
32.5 |
9217
|
| 12/18/98 |
56.8 |
31.4 |
8903 |
| 12/11/98 |
57.4 |
31.3 |
8821 |
| 12/4/98 |
56.9 |
31.0 |
9016 |
| 11/27/98 |
57.9 |
29.8 |
9333 |
| 11/20/98 |
57.0 |
31.6 |
9159 |
| 11/13/98 |
53.1 |
35.4 |
8920 |
| 11/6/98 |
47.8 |
38.3 |
8975 |
| 10/30/98 |
45.3 |
39.3 |
8592 |
| 10/23/98 |
44.0 |
39.7 |
8452 |
| 10/16/98 |
41.0 |
41.9 |
8416 |
| 10/9/98 |
38.5 |
42.7 |
7899 |
| 10/2/98 |
37.6 |
44.4 |
7784 |
| 9/25/98 |
36.2 |
45.7 |
8028 |
| 9/18/98 |
36.4 |
47.5 |
7895 |
| 9/11/98 |
37.3 |
46.6 |
7795 |
| 9/4/98 |
40.7 |
43.2 |
7640 |
| 8/28/98 |
40.4 |
38.6 |
8051 |
| 8/21/98 |
40.7 |
34.5 |
8533 |
| 8/14/98 |
43.4 |
31.9 |
8425 |
| 8/7/98 |
50.0 |
27.6 |
8598 |
| 7/31/98 |
52.2 |
26.3 |
8883 |
| 7/24/98 |
54.3 |
23.3 |
8937 |
| 7/17/98 |
52.0 |
24.0 |
9337 |
| 7/10/98 |
41.7 |
31.7 |
9105 |
| 7/3/98 |
44.9 |
31.4 |
9025 |
| 6/26/98 |
42.9 |
31.9 |
8944 |
| 6/19/98 |
42.1 |
33.3 |
8712 |
| 6/12/98 |
41.7 |
31.7 |
8834 |
| 6/5/98 |
42.8 |
28.6 |
9037 |
| 5/29/98 |
44.8 |
27.6 |
8899 |
| 5/22/98 |
47.5 |
25.0 |
9114 |
| 5/15/98 |
45.5 |
25.2 |
9096 |
| 5/8/98 |
47.5 |
24.6 |
9055 |
| 5/1/98 |
53.8 |
23.5 |
9147 |
| 4/24/98 |
54.6 |
23.1 |
9064 |
| 4/17/98 |
52.8 |
23.6 |
9167 |
| 4/10/98 |
52.4 |
24.2 |
8994 |
| 4/3/98 |
53.2 |
22.6 |
8983 |
| 3/27/98 |
49.6 |
26.4 |
8796 |
| 3/20/98 |
48.0 |
27.6 |
8906 |
| 3/13/98 |
48.8 |
27.6 |
8602 |
| 3/6/98 |
48.8 |
27.2 |
8569 |
| 2/27/98 |
46.0 |
28.2 |
8545 |
| 2/20/98 |
45.9 |
30.3 |
8413 |
| 2/13/98 |
43.7 |
32.5 |
8370 |
| 2/6/98 |
41.6 |
35.2 |
8189 |
| 1/30/98 |
43.5 |
36.3 |
7906 |
| 1/23/98 |
44.3 |
35.5 |
7700 |
| 1/16/98 |
46.3 |
35.0 |
7753 |
| 1/9/98 |
45.9 |
36.9 |
7580 |
| 1/2/98 |
47.6 |
35.2 |
7965 |
| 12/26/97 |
50.8 |
31.5 |
7679 |
| 12/19/97 |
52.5 |
30.8 |
7756 |
| 12/12/97 |
51.2 |
32.5 |
7838 |
| 12/5/97 |
47.1 |
34.7 |
8149 |
| 11/28/97 |
44.7 |
36.6 |
7823 |
| 11/21/97 |
45.1 |
37.7 |
7881 |
| 11/14/97 |
42.7 |
38.7 |
7572 |
| 11/7/97 |
44.3 |
34.7 |
7581 |
| 10/31/97 |
46.7 |
31.7 |
7442 |
| 10/24/97 |
46.4 |
31.4 |
7715 |
| 10/17/97 |
48.8 |
29.7 |
7847 |
| 10/10/97 |
47.5 |
30.7 |
8045 |
| 10/3/97 |
43.1 |
32.5 |
8038 |
| 9/26/97 |
41.5 |
34.1 |
7922
|
| 9/19/97 |
39.0 |
35.8 |
7917
|
| 9/12/97 |
37.6 |
34.4 |
7742 |
| 9/5/97 |
33.9 |
32.2 |
7822 |
| 8/29/97 |
32.2 |
33.1 |
| |