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When Do You Buy The Beaten Down?
Charles B. Carlson, CFA
Contributing Editor, Dow Theory Forecasts

Is it time to be buying the beaten down? You know, the techs, telecom-equipment, and Internet stocks.

That is the question on the minds of millions of investors. And for good reason. These stocks made investors a ton of money in the second half of the '90s, and nobody wants to miss the next money-making surge in the group.

I personally believe these stocks as a group will stay in the doldrums longer than most people think. The reason is that the unwinding of values in these groups is still underway, and there is still a very muddy picture concerning when earnings will be rebounding for the group. At the earliest, an earnings recovery for tech stocks in general is a first-half 2002 story. And for some technology companies, it could be 2003 before meaningful earnings improvement is seen.

Given that an earnings recovery is still a ways off, it is tough for me to get too excited about most technology stocks.

So when would I start to buy them? Here is a checklist of items I'm looking for to get back into these stocks:

1) Flat chart patterns. When I go bottom-fishing for stocks, I like to see a chart pattern that is flat-lining for several months. That sideways movement tells me that the stock has been washed out, and any buying should push it higher.

2) Insider buying. This is a big one. Indeed, when I buy beaten-down stocks, I don't want to feel as if I'm the only dummy buying. If corporate executives are buying - and presumably they have the best information about the company - that is a green light to pick up some shares.

3) Earnings improvement. Now I don't necessarily need to see earnings growing, per se. But I do need to see earnings comparisons from quarter to quarter getting better.

4) Improving market share. During lousy economic periods, strong companies get stronger. I like to buy the strong companies that gain market share during industry downturns. These are the companies that generally come back stronger as the market improves.

To be sure, buying crash stocks is risky. Still, if you want to wade into these waters, make sure you have some good reasons to do so.







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