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Why Invest Today?
Charles B. Carlson, CFA
Contributing Editor, Dow Theory Forecasts

There is never a bad time to get started investing. And there is never a good excuse for not starting. I don't care if you think the market today (or tomorrow or next year) is too high. I don't care if you think you don't know enough about investing. I don't care if you think you don't have enough money. Get in the game as soon as possible, even if it's with just $20. Indeed, $20 is all it takes to invest via BUYandHOLD.

The reason that getting in the game is important is the following: The biggest success factor influencing your portfolio is how well you harness the power of time and the rate of return you earn on our investments. The beauty of time is that it doesn't depend on how smart you are; how much money you have; how well connected you are. Time is the great equalizer for investors. Indeed, time is available to everyone. If time is the most influential factor on your portfolio's performance, it follows that the most important thing you can do is to get started in an investment program as soon as possible.

Now I know what some of you are thinking. The stock market has soared in the last four years. Stock valuations, according to the market experts, are at all-time highs. The market is due for a huge correction. Why should I be investing now? The problem with this thinking is that determining whether the market is "too high" is really a loser's game. For example, how may people refused to invest in 1994 because they thought the market was too high, only to see the market skyrocket in 1995. How many people refused to invest in 1996 because the market was strong in 1995? How many people refused to get started in 1997 or 1998 because they felt that, after strong periods in 1995 and 1996, the market had to come down? In each case, those who waited lost out on huge gains.

The problem with trying to time your way into the market is that, in most cases, you'll fail to put your plan into action. Perhaps you tell yourself that you'll start once the market drops 10 percent from its current level. Now say the market does, in fact, decline as you hoped. What will you likely do? My guess is that you won't invest because you'll get scared that the market is going to drop even further. So you wait some more. Then what happens? The market starts to take off. What do you? More than likely, you'll hold off buying since you don't want to chase stocks. And the cycle starts all over again — waiting for the market to drop, getting scared once it drops, watching the market rebound, and you're still on the sidelines. Remember: Every day you wait to invest, you diminish the power of the biggest success factor for your portfolio — time.


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