What Ails Technology?
Charles B. Carlson, CFA
Contributing Editor, Dow Theory Forecasts
Although investors call their individual investment styles many things, there are, in reality, two types:
1) Growth
2) Value
Growth investors tend to focus their buying on companies showing accelerating earnings and revenue growth. While growth investors don't ignore valuation measures - price/earnings ratios, dividend yields, etc. - their emphasis is on growth, not valuation.
Value investors, on the other hand, preference valuation metrics when choosing stocks. That's not to say that value investors won't buy growth stocks, but the growth stocks must also meet certain criteria in terms of valuation. In other words, value first, growth second.
Now, in order for stocks to have buying support, it is important that stocks appeal to at least one of these investor groups. Obviously, if the stock appeals to both investor groups - a growth stock that is also a value stock - you have the best of both worlds. But a stock needs to appeal to at least one group in order to show any upside activity.
Once you understand these two distinct investor groups, it is easy to see what is ailing technology stocks. The problem? Technology stocks currently don't appeal to either growth or value investors.
Since growth investors want stocks with accelerating earnings and revenue growth, the growth slowdown being felt by many tech stocks makes them unattractive for growth investors.
From a value standpoint, however, the technology stocks haven't fallen enough to represent real value -- based on price/earnings ratios and other value metrics - to be attractive to value investors.
Thus, technology stocks are without a buying constituency.
What will it take for technology stocks to gain buying support? One of two things must happen. Either tech stocks keep falling and eventually become attractive to value investors; or, growth rates begin accelerating again, which will draw growth investors.
If I had to guess which scenario is more likely in the near term, it is probably the former.




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