Negative Signals
Charles B. Carlson, CFA
Contributing Editor, Dow Theory Forecasts
Generally speaking, market declines don't come out of the blue. There are usually signals that the trend is weakening. Here are some things to be on the lookout for when evaluating the near-term trends for stocks and the overall market:
- It is a negative sign when market indexes start the trading day strong and end weak. This trading pattern has repeated itself a lot recently, and it is generally bearish. Ideally, what you want to see is money flowing into the market toward the end of the day. Such buying is more reflective of investors looking to hold stocks rather than trade them.
- It is a negative sign to see stocks decline on good news. Such trading patterns usually reflect a market that is fully valued.
- It is a negative to see several corporate insiders selling stock in a company. To be sure, corporate executives may have several reasons to sell a stock that have nothing to do with the underlying value of the company. However, when you see three or four executives and directors selling, that doesn't bode well for the stock. You can monitor insider trading activity at such Web sites as the Yahoo Finance site (http://quote.yahoo.com) and Insider Trader (www.insidertrader.com).
- It is a negative signal when a company floats a secondary stock offering. A company offers to sell stock usually at the most opportune time for the company to maximize the offering price. Thus, a company that is selling stock to the public probably thinks the stock is trading at a rich price.
The best way to use these negative signals is in conjunction with one another. In other words, if you see one of these signs, don't worry too much. But if you see several of these signals, chances are good that the market/stock is headed for a short-term decline.




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