Don't Time Markets
Charles B. Carlson, CFA
Contributing Editor, Dow Theory Forecasts
Investors have a never-ending list of excuses for not starting an investment program:
I don't have any money.
I don't have any time.
I don't know enough.
I'm too old.
I'm too young.
But the one excuse that probably bothers me the most is the following: The market is too high.
Nobody not Alan Greenspan, Peter Lynch, Chuck Carlson nobody knows if the market is too high. Many market "experts" have been saying the market is too high for five years, and all the market has done is post huge gains in that time.
Trying to call market tops and bottoms is truly a loser's game. You will not be able to do it with any consistency. Even if you are right five times out of six (and you won't be), the one time you are wrong can undo all the benefits of being right those five times.
Smart investors play the percentages. They invest based on what they know, not what they don't know. Smart investors know that time and compounding are the two most powerful forces affecting your long-term investment results. You maximize the power of time and compounding by staying in the market, not darting in and out of the market based on your perceptions about whether the market is "too high."
Even if the market is too high, enough research has shown that the long-term investor still does quite nicely investing regularly, even during peak market periods.
Bottom line: There are no valid excuses for not investing. Indeed, it has never been easier, cheaper, and more convenient to participate in the financial markets, whether through BUYandHOLD, a mutual fund, or your company's 401(k) plan. And as for staying out of the market because you think the market is too high?
Fugedaboutit.




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