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You may
have read recent news stories that talked about how the American
dollar has weakened against various currencies. One news
blurb, delivered before the Federal Reserve meeting
in September, read:
The
euro rose to record highs and the dollar plummeted to a new
low against the European currency at 1.39 The dollar's attractiveness
to global investors diminished amid expectations that the
Federal Reserve is to cut interest rates next week. The Euro
is at its highest level since the single European currency
was launched in 1999.
The terms,
"highs" and "lows," and the fact that the dollar's attractiveness
to global investors "diminished" amid the rumors of a rate
cut may or may not be familiar to you. These are relative
terms that are used in foreign exchange markets, also known
as Forex.
When a currency "strengthens," its value has risen in relation
to one or more other currencies, such as the Japanese Yen
or the Euro. When a currency "weakens," the opposite occurs
- the currency loses value in relation to various currencies.
The Yen and Euro are just two of many currencies that trade
in international Forex markets.
But, a
strong or weak dollar means much more than relative strength,
as fluctuations in the dollar's value also affects import
and export markets and even whether you decide to vacation
overseas.
When Americans
experience a weak dollar, the downsides are
as follows:
- Consumers
face higher prices on foreign goods and/or services (such
as products from China). Higher prices on foreign products
contribute to higher cost-of-living;
- U.S.
consumers find that travel abroad becomes costly, and;
- It
becomes more difficult for U.S. firms and investors to expand
into foreign markets.
On the
other hand, a strong dollar has its downsides
as well:
- U.S.
firms find it harder to compete in foreign markets, because
these firms must compete with lower priced foreign goods
and/or services;
- Foreign
tourists find it more expensive to visit the U.S., and;
- It's
more difficult for foreign investors to provide capital
to the U.S. in times of heavy U.S. borrowing.
Overall,
it's advantageous for American consumers to experience a strong
dollar, as those consumers experience lower prices on foreign
products/services, and lower prices on foreign goods and/or
services help to keep inflation low. American consumers also
benefit when they travel to foreign countries, as the dollar
can purchase more foreign currency. Additionally, U.S. investors
can purchase foreign stocks and/or bonds at "lower" prices.
Who benefits
when the dollar is weak? Just reverse the downsides to the
strong dollar:
- Although
American consumers experience higher prices on foreign imports,
U.S. firms find it easier to export to foreign markets;
- While
American consumers might experience a higher cost of living,
U.S. firms find less competitive pressure to keep prices
low abroad;
- Even
though it might be more difficult for Americans to travel
abroad, more foreign tourists can afford to visit the U.S.,
and;
- As
a result, U.S. capital markets become more attractive to
foreign investors.
In the
snippet at the beginning of this article, the writer stated
that, "The
Euro is at its highest level since the single European currency
was launched in 1999." This remark coincides with another
news
article that stated:
Although
the housing slump that has affected much of our nation has
prompted many Americans to postpone buying a primary residence
or second home, the downturn has actually helped to encourage
foreign buyers to look for property here -- especially in
popular second-home markets -- partly because U.S. prices
are now a lot lower than many foreign buyers would have to
pay for a comparable property in their native land.
As you
can see, the weak dollar benefits foreigners as more American
currency can be purchased with some foreign currencies. But,
not all foreigners are purchasing American real estate. Some
tourists would just rather vacation or shop
in New York or in other cities. As a consequence, airlines
need to fill seats on flights from America to other countries,
so they often drop prices to fill that need.
The dollar
also will continue to suffer from America's expanding trade
deficit with the rest of the world, along with its soaring
U.S. budget deficit. In other words, the U.S. is borrowing
at a faster rate than incomes can support. Additionally, the
interest rate cut that Americans experienced on 18 September
continued to make it easy for the dollar to slide
further down the scale. When mortgage problems escalated in
August, the combination of these issues continues to weigh
down the domestic economy.
But, as
I mentioned in the article on Ben
Bernanke, this Federal Reserve chairman knows how
to avoid deflation - and a weak dollar is one tool that he
can use to lower the perception of high national debt.
As an
investor in the current situation, you might think about the
adage, "Buy American," for your portfolio, as American products
and services might see a surge that lasts longer than the
immediate stock market reaction to the interest rate cut.
Look again at the list that shows who benefits from a weak
dollar. U.S. firms find it easier to expand abroad, and foreign
investors find American markets attractive when the dollar
is weak. A combination of both factors could buoy prices in
certain commodities and services. With that said, imports
and foreign stocks (depending upon the country) might be too
inflated to think about at the moment.
Also,
keep an eye on the Federal Reserve. If they cut interest rates
even further, you might invest in a little real estate to
create diversity for your long-term investments, provided
you have the credit history that allows you to land a loan.
If you pay attention to dollars and some common sense, you
can benefit from a weak dollar as well.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
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