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A savvy
long-term investor often views market corrections with anticipation,
especially if that investor has enough liquid cash on hand
to accumulate stocks at bargain-basement prices. The problem
with this strategy is that the investor often forgets to balance
that portfolio in preparation for the next correction. Since
there's been a substantial rise in the markets over the past
year, some pundits suggest that markets might be ready for
a downturn. Even if the doomsayers are incorrect and the markets
continue to climb, is your portfolio balanced and diversified?
Over the
past few weeks I've taken some advice into consideration and
took a few actions to balance my holdings. Not only do I feel
comfortable that I'm not vested solely in one sector or mainly
in large caps as opposed to small caps, I began to see my
investments in a whole new light - I've finally detached my
emotions from my stocks (after seven years!) and have actually
developed a personal investment strategy.
I find
it ironic that it's taken seven years to develop this healthy
dose of caution and reason. Perhaps that time frame is significant,
since the last major correction in the markets occurred about
seven years ago. But the recent rise in the market doesn't
seem to be accompanied by the same irrational behaviors that
qualified the tech sector in the late 1990s.
That end-of-century
enthusiasm, which pushed some tech stocks to $100 increases
per share overnight in the late '90s, doesn't exist today.
Maybe that's why I didn't encounter any brick walls when I
went on a search for guidelines to diversification and portfolio
rebalancing. It seems that seven years isn't long enough for
some folks to forget how much money can be lost within a month
when a portfolio is sector-heavy.
Some of
the tips that I found and followed in the process of balancing
and diversifying my holdings are as follows:
- First,
I needed to define my investor role as "long-term" rather
than "short-term." Since I like to find tax shelters and
deductions in any nook and cranny, I try to hold onto my
stocks more than one year and one day, as the tax
advantages [PDF] work in my favor. The ability to
lower my taxes helps me to avoid the day trading syndrome
that seems ingrained in my veins.
- One
tip stated that if any one stock constitutes more than 20
percent of the value of a portfolio's holdings, then this
imbalance could increase risk. This increased value can
be due to overbuying, or the stock may simply have done
well over the past year. Either way, that imbalance could
be corrected with a reduction in that stock or increased
purchases in other holdings. If I haven't held the stock
more than a year, then I can't sell it (according to my
rules), so I need to have enough liquid cash on hand to
increase my other holdings. The fact that I need this liquidity
has forced me to save money in a liquid interest bearing
account.
- On
the other hand, if I own a stock that takes up five percent
or less of my portfolio, then this stock is taking up my
time and money. That balance seems disproportionate, so
I need to accumulate more of that stock or sell it.
- My
worst habit is to try to time the market for sales and purchases.
According to Sam Stovall, an investment strategist for Standard
& Poor's and a columnist for Business
Week Online, even if stocks are purchased at the
high end and a correction occurs, it normally takes only
three years on average to see a new high. One exception
to this theory includes certain tech stocks that enjoyed
irrational highs in the late 1990s. Instead of timing the
market, I need to be consistent about my accumulations.
- First,
for sector diversification, I was advised to think about
following the most popular sectors with the current S&P
"top
ten" makeup. Currently, if I followed this trend,
I would need to think about pursuing rail and trucking (transportation/services),
healthcare, biotech, agricultural chemicals, construction
(industrial and residential), and NASCAR. When I compared
the sectors in the S&P top ten to the sectors listed at
BUYandHOLD,
I realized that this top ten group has neglected over half
the sectors on that list. This omission is a reason to wonder
why tech, food and beverage, and energy and utilities weren't
included in that S&P top ten. Accordingly, I wondered why
I was holding consumer goods rather than biotech?.more reason
for research.
- The
S&P top ten also ranges from small- to large-cap stocks.
While I love the 'passive investment' factor involved with
receiving and/or reinvesting dividends, I also need to think
about diverting some of those investments into small- and
mid-sized cap stocks. On the other hand, if you live for
the risk involved with small-cap stocks, you might want
to invest in some large-cap stability to help balance that
portfolio.
One way
to balance sectors and company size in your portfolio is to
rely on that same 20 percent and five percent evaluation used
for the holdings in your portfolio. For instance, if one sector
comprises more than twenty percent of your holdings, then
either reduce those holdings or beef up your other holdings
in other sectors to balance them out. If large caps comprise
less than five percent of your portfolio, you might consider
increasing your holdings in large-cap stocks to balance your
risk.
Also consider
that the S&P top ten changes over time, which is a great indicator
for your own holdings. A stagnant portfolio is similar to
a pair of old shoes. After a year or so of constant usage,
something's gotta give. Either the shoes will fail you or
you can gain control by fixing them or by sending them out
the door - and not on your feet. The same theory goes for
the stocks in your portfolio - fix them or say goodbye. When
the next correction rolls around, you can smile like a Jimmy
Buffet wanna-be as you savor the value of your long-term investments.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
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