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While
I haven't conducted a survey among contrarian investors, I'll
wager that the results might show that contrarians battled
their parents over bed-making when they were younger. Contrarians
usually ask, "why," when someone tells them to do something,
like when an analyst insists that investors buy or sell a
particular stock. The contrarian would rather buy stocks when
others sell and sell when others buy. She'll go against analysts'
ratings, use different tactics to screen her stocks, and search
for off-beat investments for her portfolio.
In short,
the contrarian investor might be the adult who hated to make
her bed when she was a kid because mom never gave her a good
reason to make it in the first place.
Don't
take me wrong - I happen to like contrarians because I belong
to that crowd. I never heard a good reason for bed-making
when I was younger, and the only reason I take the time to
make it now is because I'm afraid my roommate's cat will spread
his nasty fur all over my sheets. Furthermore, I know that
many other investors do what analysts tell them to do, and
I don't want to be part of that lemming-like crowd.
Some people
might argue that contrarian investors are rebellious and that
they need therapy, because they don't follow the age-old adage
to "buy low and sell high." I retort that contrarian investors
are usually smart as long as they don't go to extremes, because
investors don't have the ability to see into the future. How
does an investor truly know when a stock has bottomed out
or - alternately - when a stock has peaked?
Granted,
"buy low, sell high," represents a common-sense approach to
the market. Contrarians, like value-minded investors, like
to make profits, too; however, they approach the market from
a different perspective. Some purchase stocks at high prices,
but they sell "short," or with the expectation that the stock
will fall. While I don't advocate short-selling because -
on the whole - markets tend to rise over the long run, I'll
give a brief explanation about this practice, because short-selling
is a valued indicator for many contrary investors who like
to purchase stocks on the upturn.
When an
investor "shorts" a stock, he basically makes a bet that the
stock will go down. The investor borrows shares, sells them
immediately, and promises to return the same number of shares
plus interest within a given time frame. If the stock falls,
the investor purchases shares at a lower price and returns
them to the lender. For instance, if the investor short-sells
100 shares of KAMIKAZE stock at $100 per share and the stock
falls to $50 per share, he would make $5,000 profit (minus
interest, brokerage and/or selling/purchasing fees, and the
value of time spent watching the stock with intense scrutiny).
While this sounds like an insane way to make a profit, many
contrarians live saner lives than you might imagine because
they look at short-sellers as indicators for stocks on the
upturn.
When short
interest is combined with analyst ratings, these two parameters
often offer many contrarians a gauge for stock purchase considerations.
For example, contrarians' ears might tingle when analysts
rate stocks as "buy" or "hold." They then might check the
short interest ratio on this stock to see if it's higher than
5, because high short interest ratios equal high interest
in short selling, and ratios below 5 mean that the stock is
in favor.
The short-interest
ratio compares short interest to the daily trading volume,
and it shows the number of days that it would take for short-sellers
to buy back their borrowed shares based on the recent average
daily trading volume. Short interest ratios usually run from
0 to 20 days and sometimes higher. When a short ratio begins
to fall, the contrarian begins to look for an upturn in the
stock's monetary value as short-sellers purchase stocks to
replace ones that they borrowed.
Conservative
contrarians - those who don't make beds but who keep clean
bathrooms - also might avoid single-digit stocks, or equities
which sell for less than $10. Why? Let's talk extreme volatility,
as low-priced stocks are favorites among many day traders.
In my opinion, lower-priced stocks often act like piranhas,
because they can nibble an investor's wallet to death.
Additionally,
an eye to institutional ownership in a company's stock can
help the contrarian keep faith in her decisions. Institutional
ownership constitutes the percentage of a firm's outstanding
shares owned by large investors like mutual funds. When institutional
investors stick with sell-rated stocks, it may mean that they
think the share price isn't headed south for a long-term vacation
from profits. The stronger the institutional support, the
stronger the contrarian feels about her decision, especially
if ownership remains over 60%.
These
indicators provide mere suggestions to help you practice stock
screens and watches, which is similar to an exploration of
valid reasons for becoming a anti-bed-making pro. You can
use BUYandHOLD's Stock
Tracker system for free as long as you're registered
(which is also free). You can also research
stocks at BUYandHOLD,
where each company's page lists valuable information, including
links to a company's Web site, news releases, investor relations,
and corporate profiles, among other pertinent items.
Lastly,
for no other reason than to justify my own anti-bed-making
mentality: Bed-making consumes three-to-five minutes out of
every day and more if you're into hospital corners and quarter-bouncing
techniques. If you multiply that time by the days in a year,
you'll spend - on average - about thirty (30) hours a year
with this task. Wouldn't you rather research means to invest
in your future with that time? If you agree, then you (or
your child) might become a future contrarian investor.
Until
Next Week,
Linda Goin
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