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Hard times
are subjective, like some non-durable goods. A loss of income
and a falling dollar on top of war worries and flat portfolios
can be depressing. Do we stay depressed and worried, or do
we have outlets to keep our spirits up? If we don't have discretionary
income, how do we entertain ourselves? If money weren't an
issue, then what sort of entertainment would we choose? Is
it food or fun parks? Movies or murder novels? Do we jump
into a bubble bath or hop on a plane?
The answers
to these questions might help us choose current equities for
the recreation/leisure sector of our portfolios. If we take
a look at the top
ten holdings in leisure/recreation stocks at BUYandHOLD,
we have a starting point for our research. There are other
clues to help us decide how to invest in this sector. Let's
see how some of these play out:
- Leisure
Travel - if we have jobs and children, travel is a summer
thing. If we're single and without a care in the world,
travel still isn't usually a yearlong venture (unless we're
planning a vision quest in Tibet). This makes leisure travel
a seasonal investment, and one that depends on discretionary
income/budget. There are inexpensive ways to travel, but
they all involve products listed in the transportation sector.
If we take a look first at airline, automobile, passenger
train and cruise line incomes and market volume, we might
have an idea how leisure travel will fare this year. Oh
- don't forget worries about current and near-future prices
of gas and oil.
- Recreation
Equipment - On the other hand, if we feel we need to
leave the real world behind, we'll find a way. One example
is camping at a nearby park. Do we see a surge in tent sales?
Are sleeping bags doing well? These are non-durable goods,
but they also fall under the "recreation" category. Other
recreation equipment would incorporate sports equipment.
If we think ice climbing, remember this is a seasonal sport.
If we think ice-skating, that's an altogether different
piece of ice. Sports with the flexibility to be played indoors
and outdoors are not as dependent on seasonal sales.
- Theme
Parks - Once again, we have to get there. They don't
come to us, unless it's through the tube in our televisions
or computers.
- Television
vs. Movies - This is a tough call. If we count on a
majority vote to see a movie when it first comes out, great.
If we count on limited budgets, television might win. At
last count, two tickets, two popcorns, and two soft drinks
cost as much as a pair of girl's jeans. Toss that coin,
and see what we come up with. My daughter has a philosophy:
if it's on the big screen during Christmas, it will be on
video by summer. We can wait to rent a video, make our own
popcorn, and save a bundle (although we did make an exception
to watch a certain blonde elfin bowman on the big screen
this past holiday?). Another clue to people cutting back
on entertainment funds is the upswing in high market ratings
for cable. Are people planning to stay home for their entertainment?
Hmmm?how are DVD, video, and TIVO sales doing? Branch out
a bit and add stereo systems and CDs to the checklist. While
we're branching out, let's add?
- Tech
Entertainment - My daughter, once again, gives me clues
to how she likes to relax. She would rather play on the
computer than watch television. I've introduced her to paint
programs, and she spends hours playing with pixels. If your
child isn't artistic, then find something that snags their
interest. Whatever it is, the computer software world will
probably have it in stock. We can add other computerized
games to this list, including those that incorporate the
television as the gaming medium. This is an interesting
avenue to check out for investments, and we'll take a look
at more tech goodies in a few weeks.
- Food
and Drink
- This category defines dining for entertainment, not just
for survival. This includes the popcorn at the movies, the
gotta-have-it chocolate, and the glass of wine we partake
every night for health reasons. Sure, that last one might
be medicinal, but it sure is entertaining, isn't it? Alcohol
sales - historically - don't suffer during hard times. If
we don't choose to support this market, think about other
feel-good foods. These are mostly what I term junk foods
- food and drinks with absolutely no nutritional value.
If we don't choose to support this market either, then our
last choice is in the realm of the restaurant. When we think
restaurants, don't think quality at the moment. During hard
times, it's better to think fast and cheap. If this is another
market we can't support, then it's time to move on?
- Toys
-Toys are definitely non-durable goods, unless they're purchased
specifically for collector's items or if they're adopted
by the tech sector. In the first instance, just keep an
eye on what your children crave. You can read more about
watching
your children here. This article applies to kids from
age three to 103. Think about this?the recent decade-long
surge in the stock market that ended about two years ago
allowed many of us to live the good life. Those rich ways
of life often become die-hard habits. There are ways to
get around feeling rich when pocket poor - if we can't afford
spas, just buy a hot tub. If we can't go after the annual
trip to Aruba, just get a tanning bed. Yes, these are toys.
To some they might be luxuries, but to others they're ways
to relax. If you can't afford either one, watch the stock
numbers on these items for entertainment.
We haven't
covered every way folks choose to relax. Some ideas aren't
on the market, and others are illegal. Others still are trends,
something long-term investors choose to avoid. Just think
of ways you choose to entertain yourself, and take a look
at the companies you support with your purchases. Are any
of them strong leaders in the market? If so, perhaps you might
invest in more than just their products.
Myself?
I'm going to go soak in bathtub full of bubbles and finish
reading that book about alternative energy. I'll let you know
what I find next week.
Until
then,
Linda Goin
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