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Last week
we uncovered a portion of the IMF (International Monetary
Standard). This week, Cora and I discovered how one of the
IMF's operations works in real-time. We were able to fantasize
about foreign travel as we researched how the American dollar
compared to other monetary units through online currency calculators.
Just go
to your favorite search engine and type in "exchange rate
calculator" and you can choose from several online rate exchange
tools. Try a few of them out to see which one you and your
children prefer to use. We picked several different calculators
just to see if they would give us the same rates. We weren't
surprised when we found a small difference among them. The
IMF keeps a daily tally of all currencies on their
own special page, and comparisons between IMF rates and
other exchange calculators took only minutes of our time.
Our first
goal was to see how many Australian dollars we could buy with
one American dollar. We picked Australia, because I've lived
there, and it's a place where Cora would like to visit. We
found, on the average, that one American dollar would buy
about 1.51 Australian dollars. Or, as I explained to Cora,
one of her American dollars would equal $1.51 American dollars
in Australia (just a few years ago, one American dollar bought
close to 1.75 Australian dollars).
Being
the sharp teen she is, she asked whether our dollar - converted
to Australian dollars - would buy the same amount of goods
in Australia as it would in the states. With a bit more research,
we found most goods in Australia are about the same price
as they are here. There are some exceptions, such as phone
service, computers, and large appliances. Clothes, food, and
rent were about the same as they would be in a larges U.S.
city. One explanation for this pricing difference would be
additional costs of shipping goods to and from Australia (way?down?there?on
the map).
We continued
our research, and found one U.S. dollar would buy the following
(based on the average of three different calculator figures
and rounded off): 1.16 Euro, 116.85 Japanese Yen, and .61
British Pounds. We went back three hours later, and found
the exchange rates increased during that time. The dollar
was still $1.00, but the Euro was now 1.17, the Yen was 117.03,
and British Pound was .63. How could this rate change so quickly?
What did it mean?
Cora and
I hunted for current and historic information on the strength
of the U.S. dollar. Using the exercise we practiced two weeks
ago with the World Bank and Bush's tax cuts, we typed "2003
U.S. dollar drop" into our favorite search engine. We came
up with some interesting current headlines. The news was extracted
from local sources situated in various countries around the
globe. It seems the strength of the American dollar is interesting
to many people, especially to politicians and special-interest
groups.
In 2001,
the dollar increased in value by almost 30%. This increase,
or overvaluation, worried many Americans because it affected
the prices of U.S. imports and exports. Our products were
priced out of many global markets, which made it difficult
to sell to other countries. Imports, on the other hand, were
much less expensive than usual. This dollar overvaluation
also created a huge disparity in global exchange rates. This
information was supported by another story about worries over
the current strengthening Australian dollar. It seems Australians
now have the same concerns America had two years ago about
imports, exports, and disparities in the exchange rates.
Within
the past year, the American dollar decreased in value by almost
30%. In spite of distress over a "soft" dollar, this drop
seems to bring the price of our goods in line with other markets,
and decreases the cost of exports; however, this dollar drop
also increases the price of imports into the U.S.
We found
one story about a Japanese car manufacturer and his company's
decision to build more cars in the U.S. The Yen is strengthening,
and a softer U.S. dollar makes it more feasible to manufacture
the Japanese automobiles here. This made sense to us, because
U.S. manufacturers historically looked for less expensive
places to manufacture goods. Some places include Third World
countries. Does this move by the Japanese car manufacturer
mean the U.S. is becoming a third-world country? Not necessarily.
It just means we'll pay more for foreign goods as the dollar
weakens, including Japanese cars (unless they're manufactured
in the U.S.).
Some people
fear the dropping dollar because - for them - it represents
a loss of power. Many wonder why Treasury Secretary John Snow
isn't concerned. At the end of May, Snow stated he felt the
drop in the dollar was "moderate." This statement seems feasible,
considering the high rise of the dollar in 2001. However,
he also made the comment that Washington would no longer value
the U.S. dollar's strength by its market value against other
currencies. This remark is a puzzle, because comparisons are
built into Keynesian Economics, the World Bank, the IMF, and
capitalism.
Comparisons
are all we have, it seems. Without comparisons, we wouldn't
need currency exchanges. These comparisons also extend to
foreign investments. As the dollar weakens here, does that
mean foreign investors will take their money and run to other,
increasingly stronger, foreign markets? Or does it mean more
investors will flock to a weak U.S. market, with expectations
of profits as our economy increases in strength?
Much depends
on how much further the dollar will drop, we decided. There
are too many questions, and just as many opinions rendered
in the answers. Next week we'll look into the historic impact
of global exports and imports. Perhaps we'll find some answers
there?
Until
then,
Linda Goin
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